九典制药：核心品种保持高速放量，院内院外齐发力

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Jiudian Pharmaceutical with a target price of 26.53 CNY per share [5] Core Views - Jiudian Pharmaceutical's core product, Loxoprofen Sodium Gel Patch, is a first-to-market generic in China with strong competitive advantages due to clinical approval barriers [1] - The company is expanding its market presence both in-hospital and out-of-hospital, with steady sales growth in centralized procurement regions and new growth drivers from online and offline channels [1] - Jiudian Pharmaceutical is deepening its focus on transdermal drug delivery systems, with multiple products in the pipeline expected to further enhance its market position [2] - The company's profitability is expected to grow significantly, with projected net profits of 525 million CNY, 692 million CNY, and 896 million CNY for 2024-2026, respectively [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.693 billion CNY in 2023 to 4.677 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.6% [3] - EBITDA is projected to increase from 471 million CNY in 2023 to 1.068 billion CNY in 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.07 CNY in 2023 to 1.81 CNY in 2026, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 31.06x to 14.23x over the same period [3] Market and Product Analysis - Jiudian Pharmaceutical's Loxoprofen Sodium Gel Patch dominates the market with a 100% market share in 2022 and 2023 [32] - The company's Ketoprofen Gel Patch, approved in 2023, is expected to further expand its market share in the transdermal drug delivery sector [10] - Jiudian Pharmaceutical has a robust pipeline of transdermal drug delivery products, including Indomethacin Gel Patch and Lidocaine Gel Patch, which are expected to contribute to future growth [12][34] Industry Trends - The global transdermal drug delivery market is projected to reach 9.6 billion USD by 2027, driven by the advantages of transdermal patches such as ease of use and patient compliance [48] - Chronic pain, a growing issue due to aging populations, is expected to drive demand for transdermal pain relief products, with over 280 million chronic pain patients in China alone [58] Strategic Initiatives - Jiudian Pharmaceutical is actively building a nationwide marketing network, with a focus on both in-hospital and out-of-hospital markets [43] - The company has successfully developed a national commercial team and expanded its online presence, which is expected to drive further growth [45]