TKD(603738) 上海证券·2024-12-10 02:10Investment Rating - Buy (首次) [4] Core Views - The company specializes in quartz crystal frequency components and has built a product matrix covering consumer electronics, automotive electronics, communication, and industrial control through semiconductor lithography technology [4] - The company is the only domestic and one of the few international companies to master quartz crystal MEMS technology and achieve mass production of miniature crystal oscillators [4] - The company's 76.8MHz high-frequency thermal crystal resonator has passed Qualcomm's automotive-grade 5G platform SA522 and SA525 certification, and its 55.2MHz high-frequency thermal crystal resonator has been adopted by a domestic new energy vehicle brand [4] - The company's global revenue share in the crystal oscillator industry reached 4.0% in 2021, ranking 8th globally, up from 2.1% in 2020 [4] - The global and Chinese quartz crystal oscillator markets are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.66% and 6.23% respectively from 2023 to 2027, driven by the recovery of consumer electronics and the growth of automotive and IoT markets [4] Industry Overview - Crystal oscillators are essential frequency control components widely used in consumer electronics, automotive, communication, and IoT industries [39] - The global smartphone and PC markets showed recovery in 2024H1, with shipments increasing by 7.66% and 5.23% YoY respectively [4] - The global consumer electronics market is expected to exceed $950 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.9% from 2024 to 2029 [4] - The automotive industry's electrification and intelligence trends are driving the demand for crystal oscillators, with higher standards and increased usage per vehicle [4] - The 5G and IoT markets are creating new demand for high-frequency, high-precision crystal oscillators, with the global IoT connections expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% from 2022 to 2027 [79] Company Strengths - The company has over 20 years of experience in the crystal oscillator industry and has developed a comprehensive product line through semiconductor lithography technology [15] - It is the only domestic company to master quartz crystal MEMS technology and achieve mass production of miniature crystal oscillators [15] - The company has a stable equity structure and subsidiaries that support its strategic layout [24] - It has a strong R&D capability, with 162 patents and 7 software copyrights as of 2024H1 [101] - The company has obtained certifications from major platforms such as Qualcomm and MediaTek, and its products are widely used in 5G base stations, smartphones, and automotive electronics [104] Financial Performance - In 2024Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 618 million yuan, a YoY increase of 3.69%, and net profit of 84 million yuan, a YoY increase of 12.25% [28] - The company's gross margin and net margin showed signs of recovery in 2024H1, with gross margin at 25.22% and net margin at 14.85% [30] - The company's inventory structure was optimized in 2024Q3, with raw materials accounting for 60% of inventory [34] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 112, 156, and 187 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 56, 40, and 34 [119] Market Opportunities - The recovery of consumer electronics and the growth of automotive and IoT markets are expected to drive the demand for crystal oscillators [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic substitution trend and the expansion of overseas markets [4] - The company's high-frequency and miniature crystal oscillators are expected to see increased demand in 5G, WIFI6/7, and automotive applications [4] - The global and Chinese quartz crystal oscillator markets are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.66% and 6.23% respectively from 2023 to 2027 [109]