Lilly(US:LLY) First Shanghai Securities·2024-12-10 06:17Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of $981.8, implying an 18.8% upside from the current price of $827 [2][3] Core Thesis - Tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound) is expected to continue driving strong revenue growth for the company [2] - Q3 2024 revenue increased 20% YoY to $11.44 billion, with 42% growth excluding Zyprexa divestiture impact [2] - Global volume grew 36%, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, while non-GLP-1 products also grew 17% [2] - Gross margin improved 0.6pp to 81.0% due to favorable product mix and pricing [2] - Q4 revenue growth is expected to reach 50%, with full-year revenue forecast at $45.4-46.0 billion and EPS of $12.1-12.6 [2] Segment Performance Metabolic - Q3 revenue grew 57% YoY to $7.41 billion, driven by 210% growth in Tirzepatide to $4.37 billion [2] - Mounjaro holds 34% TRx SOM in the US diabetes market, while Zepbound has 43% TRx SOM in obesity [2] - SURMOUNT-1 study showed Tirzepatide reduced risk of type 2 diabetes by 94% in pre-diabetic, obese or overweight adults [2] - Zepbound demonstrated superior weight loss (20.2%) vs Wegovy (13.7%) in head-to-head trials [2] Neuroscience - Q3 revenue declined 80% YoY to $350 million due to Zyprexa divestiture [2] - Kisunla (Alzheimer's drug) approved in US, Japan and UK, with ARIA-E incidence reduced from 24% to 14% through modified titration [2] Immunology - Q3 revenue grew 20% YoY to $1.19 billion [2] - Taltz (IL-17A) revenue increased 18% to $880 million due to price and demand growth [2] - Ebglyss (IL-13) approved for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis [2] Oncology - Q3 revenue grew 28% YoY to $2.23 billion [2] - Verzenio (CDK4/6) revenue increased 32% to $1.37 billion, driven by early breast cancer indication [2] Other - Q3 revenue declined 5% to $260 million [2] Financial Summary - 2024E revenue forecast at $45.8 billion, representing 34.1% YoY growth [4] - 2024E net profit expected to reach $11.0 billion, with 110.5% YoY growth [4] - 2024E EPS projected at $12.20, implying 110.3% YoY growth [4] - 2024E EBITDA margin forecast at 33.2%, up from 23.4% in 2023 [6] - 2024E net margin expected to improve to 24.1% from 15.4% in 2023 [6] - 2024E R&D expense ratio forecast at 24.5%, down from 27.3% in 2023 [6] - 2024E SG&A/Revenue ratio expected to decline to 18.5% from 21.7% in 2023 [6]