HAIDILAO(06862) 国信证券·2024-12-10 10:47Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Haidilao (06862 HK) [3] Core Views - Haidilao's main brand is expected to see improvements in both same-store operations and store expansion in 2025, while its barbecue brand is set to accelerate development [3] - The company has demonstrated strong operational adjustment capabilities in a weak market environment, with same-store sales expected to return to growth in 2025 [3][32] - The "Pomegranate Plan" is expected to drive the rapid expansion of new brands, particularly the barbecue brand, with synergies in supply chain and labor ensuring profitability [3][32] Business Review - Haidilao, founded in 1994, is a leading player in the hotpot and Chinese dining sectors, with a revenue CAGR of 28 0% and a net profit CAGR of 42 0% from 2015 to 2023 [7] - In 2021, the company faced operational challenges due to rapid expansion and the pandemic, leading to a net loss of RMB 4 16 billion, including over RMB 3 65 billion in impairment losses [8] - The "Woodpecker Plan" implemented in November 2021 helped the company turn around, with a net profit of RMB 1 638 billion in 2022 [9] - In 2023, Haidilao achieved record-high revenue of RMB 41 45 billion and net profit of RMB 4 499 billion, with 1,343 stores by mid-2024 [7][15] Growth Outlook Same-Store Operations - Haidilao's same-store operations are expected to improve, with a stable turnover rate and a recovery in average spending per customer [3][22] - The average spending per customer rebounded to around RMB 100 in December 2024, showing a continuous recovery trend [3] - The overall turnover rate reached 4 2 times in mid-2024, close to the 4 8 times in 2019, despite the number of stores doubling to nearly 1,400 [3] Store Expansion - Haidilao is expected to achieve a mid-single-digit percentage increase in net store openings in 2025, with the franchise model contributing additional growth [3][22] - The company has become more aggressive in store expansion, with plans to open 40-50 new stores in the second half of 2024 [3] New Brand Development - The "Pomegranate Plan" focuses on incubating new brands, with the barbecue brand "Yanqing Barbecue" leading the way [3][23] - Yanqing Barbecue, which opened its first store at the end of 2023, had 12 stores nationwide by November 2024, with plans to expand to 100/200 stores by 2025/2026 [3][23] - The single-store model for Yanqing Barbecue is estimated to generate annual revenue of RMB 10 million, with a net profit margin of 12-14% [3][27] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Haidilao's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 4 62/5 12/5 62 billion, with growth rates of 3%/11%/10%, and a dynamic PE of 19/17/15x [3][32] - Under optimistic assumptions, the net profit for 2025-2026 could reach RMB 5 83/7 16 billion, with growth rates of 3%/26%/23%, and a dynamic PE of 15/12x [32]