Bank of Ningbo(002142) 广发证券·2024-12-11 02:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10]. Core Views - The report highlights that Ningbo Bank has established a solid foundation for future leapfrog development by focusing on building core competitiveness. Key growth drivers include consumer credit as a significant growth engine, innovative deposit products that attract core customers, and a diversified income structure that supports non-interest income growth [10][69]. Summary by Sections 1. Steady Progress, Dual Excellence in Revenue and Cost - Loan business: Consumer credit has become a crucial growth driver, with Ningbo Bank's consumer finance business growing by 24.78% year-to-date in 2024, particularly in offline self-operated business, which increased from 0.16% at the end of 2021 to 30.49% by the second quarter of 2024 [10][69]. - Deposit business: The "Five Management and Two Treasures" product has helped retain a core customer base, leading to stable deposits. The launch of the "Bobo Zhiliao" enterprise service platform in June 2023 has further enhanced customer retention [10][69]. - Non-interest income: Although impacted by exchange rates and capital market fluctuations, the company’s diversified profit centers are maturing, with strong growth in wealth management assets under management (AUM) [10][69]. - Asset quality: The bank has increased its write-off efforts, positioning itself to benefit from economic recovery [10][69]. 2. High Growth Expected in 2025 - Scale: The impact of "Trump 2.0" tariffs is manageable, and the expansion of consumer finance supports credit growth [10][69]. - Net interest margin: Expected to stabilize and recover, with a lower proportion of long-term loans mitigating the impact of interest rate adjustments [10][69]. - Non-interest income: Client trading and wealth management are expected to support growth in non-interest income, with a recovery in demand for foreign exchange hedging and capital market activities [10][69]. - Tax advantages: The one-time impact of loan write-offs on the tax rate is nearing an end, which may expand tax benefits [10][69]. 3. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts a growth rate of 7.46% and 15.26% for net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 4.04 and 4.67 yuan per share [10][69]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.14X and 5.31X for 2024 and 2025, respectively, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.82X and 0.72X [10][69]. - The report maintains a reasonable value estimate of 36.43 yuan per share, corresponding to a PB valuation of approximately 1.2X for 2024, and reiterates the "Buy" rating [10][69].