金属包装行业整合在即，奥瑞金稳中求进迎拐点

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.86 CNY per share based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [7]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leader in the metal packaging industry, with significant revenue growth from 8.18 billion CNY in 2018 to 13.84 billion CNY in 2023, and a CAGR of 11.1% [3][58]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 0.23 billion CNY to 0.77 billion CNY during the same period, with a CAGR of 28.1% [3][58]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing beer canization rate in China, which is expected to drive industry expansion [4][81]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the metal packaging industry for over two decades and has solidified its leading position [26]. - It has a concentrated shareholding structure and a stable management team, which supports long-term strategic planning [36]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The metal packaging industry is undergoing significant consolidation, with the two-piece can market expected to benefit from rising beer canization rates [4][81]. - The market for two-piece cans reached 26.7 billion CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 5.5% from 2019 to 2023 [4][81]. 3. Customer Diversification - The company has successfully reduced its reliance on major clients, with the largest customer, China Red Bull, accounting for 33.7% of sales in H1 2023, down from 59.1% in 2018 [4][58]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base and diversifying its revenue streams, which enhances its operational stability [4][58]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.875 billion CNY, 1.0 billion CNY, and 1.117 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]. - The report anticipates that the company will maintain resilient performance despite market pressures, with a focus on expanding its overseas business and new energy initiatives [4][58].