HONGLU(002541) 光大证券·2024-12-11 07:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a forecasted net profit of 1.24 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.65 billion yuan for 2024-2026 respectively [4][58]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery and the significant potential for exports, particularly in the context of the company's smart transformation initiatives [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in domestic demand, as indicated by positive growth in industrial land transactions since July 2024 [3][10]. - The report highlights the competitive advantages of the company's steel structure products in the export market, including tax benefits and lower pricing compared to global competitors [21][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Demand Recovery - The report identifies a turning point in domestic demand for steel structures, supported by positive growth in industrial and commercial land transactions [3][10]. - The monthly transaction area for industrial land has shown positive year-on-year growth since July 2024, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [9][10]. 2. Export Price Advantages - The company enjoys a 13% export tax rebate on steel structure products, which is not available for raw steel exports, enhancing its competitiveness [21][29]. - China's steel prices are comparatively lower than those of Japan and South Korea, providing a pricing advantage in the global market [21][24]. 3. Overseas Demand Potential - The report notes that China's steel structure exports have been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% from 2012 to 2023 [43][50]. - The global demand for steel structures is estimated to be around 110 million tons, similar to domestic consumption levels, indicating significant export opportunities [43][50]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects revenue growth from 19.85 billion yuan in 2022 to 29.33 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit increase from 1.16 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.65 billion yuan in 2026 [59]. - The report maintains a focus on the importance of smart transformation in enhancing production capacity and reducing costs, which will strengthen the company's competitive position [4][58].