HONGLU(002541) 光大证券·2024-12-11 08:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a forecasted net profit of 1.24 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.65 billion yuan for 2024-2026 respectively [4][58]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery and the significant potential for exports, particularly in the context of the company's smart transformation initiatives [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in domestic demand, as evidenced by positive growth in industrial land transactions since July 2024, indicating a turning point in demand [3][10]. - The export potential is bolstered by tax advantages, with steel structure products enjoying a 13% export tax rebate, unlike steel materials which face anti-dumping duties in some markets [3][21][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Demand Turning Point - The report identifies a turning point in domestic demand, with industrial and commercial land transaction indicators showing positive growth since July 2024 [3][10]. - The monthly transaction area for industrial land has shown several months of year-on-year positive growth, suggesting a recovery in downstream demand [9][10]. 2. Domestic Steel Structure Export Price Advantage - The report highlights that domestic steel structure exports have a price advantage due to lower steel prices in China compared to other countries, with China's hot-rolled coil export price at 522 USD/ton as of Q3 2024 [21][24]. - Steel structure products benefit from a pricing mechanism based on "material cost + processing fee," with the company's selling price in 2023 at 5,530.1 yuan per ton and a gross margin of 11.1% [21][24]. 3. Significant Overseas Demand Potential - The report notes that China's steel structure exports have been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% from 2012 to 2023, reaching 10.51 million tons in 2023 [43][50]. - The overseas market for steel structures is estimated to be around 110 million tons, indicating substantial demand potential [43][50]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report provides profit forecasts for the company, projecting revenues of 24.5 billion, 26.2 billion, and 29.3 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 4.8%, 5.3%, and 26.55% [58][59]. - The report emphasizes the importance of smart transformation in enhancing production capacity and reducing costs, which will strengthen the company's competitive advantage [4][58].