Loctek(300729) 甬兴证券·2024-12-11 09:44Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its fundamentals and valuation expectations [2][148]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the smart home sector, focusing on linear drive technology for health-oriented office and smart home products. It operates both domestic and international brands, "Lege" and "Flexispot" respectively [2][16]. - The company has expanded its operations to include public overseas warehouse services, enhancing its logistics capabilities for large items in cross-border e-commerce, with 19 public overseas warehouses globally [2][16]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 39.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.03%, although net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 8.64% due to rising costs [2][24]. - The linear drive market is projected to exceed 5 billion USD by 2024, driven by increasing demand for health office products and smart home applications [2][35][37]. - The company has a robust production capacity of over 2 million units annually, positioning it as a global leader in the linear drive sector [2][81]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2002 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2017. It specializes in health-oriented office and smart home products, with a focus on linear drive technology [2][16]. - The ownership structure is concentrated among the founding couple, ensuring stable control and a strong incentive alignment through stock options and employee stock ownership plans [2][18][22]. Financial Analysis - Revenue has grown significantly from 978 million yuan in 2019 to 3.902 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 59.85%. The growth is attributed to the rise in e-commerce penetration and health consumption trends [2][24]. - The company’s net profit increased from 63.4 million yuan in 2019 to 634 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 112.18% [2][26]. - The company’s gross margin has fluctuated, with a recovery noted in 2023 due to improved operational efficiencies [2][33]. Linear Drive Sector - The linear drive industry is rapidly growing, with applications in health office products, smart homes, and medical devices. The market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing health awareness [2][35][39]. - The company has established a comprehensive value chain, from R&D to sales, enhancing its competitive edge in the linear drive market [2][62][75]. Overseas Warehouse Operations - The cross-border e-commerce logistics sector is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan by 2025, with the company benefiting from its established overseas warehouse network [2][100]. - The company has over 10 years of experience in overseas warehouse operations, focusing on large item logistics, which enhances its market position [2][118]. - The company has strategically acquired land for warehouse development, ensuring a sustainable supply of logistics resources [2][131]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 55.48 billion yuan, 65.79 billion yuan, and 76.79 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 42%, 19%, and 17% respectively [2][148]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 14, 12, and 10, which are below the average of comparable companies, indicating a valuation advantage [2][148].