SBGCL(600827) 国信证券·2024-12-13 01:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][4] Core Viewpoints - The company, as a leading retail enterprise in East China under the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, has been actively transforming its business operations to adapt to current consumption trends, such as the "Guzi" economy and outlet formats [5] - The company has been leveraging its geographical advantages and self-owned properties to focus on new retail formats like ZX Creative Field and outlets, which are expected to drive future profit elasticity [5] - The company's asset securitization efforts, including the issuance of public REITs, have significantly boosted investment income, with the Hua'an Bailian Consumption REIT raising 2.332 billion yuan and contributing to a substantial increase in investment income [5] - The company's ZX Creative Field, focusing on the ACGN (Anime, Comic, Game, Novel) subculture, has seen impressive performance, with sales reaching 300 million yuan and foot traffic exceeding 9.5 million in 2023 [10] - The company's outlet business continues to perform strongly, with the Shanghai Qingpu Outlet achieving a revenue of 6.17 billion yuan in 2023, and the overall outlet business seeing a 14% increase in sales compared to 2021 [20][21] Business Transformation and New Formats - The company has been actively transforming its classic stores since 2015, upgrading consumer experiences and adapting to new consumption trends [6] - The ZX Creative Field, the first commercial complex in China focusing on the ACGN subculture, has become a significant success, with 70% of its stores being national first stores, and sales increasing by 84% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2023 [10] - The company plans to open a second ZX Creative Field in Yangpu, targeting the young consumer base near universities and cultural enterprises like Bilibili and Papergames [11] - The company's outlet business has been expanding steadily, with 9 outlets currently operating, primarily in East China, and the Shanghai Qingpu Outlet leading the industry with a revenue of 6.17 billion yuan in 2023 [20][21] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase to 1.734 billion yuan in 2024, up from the previous estimate of 1.579 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 12x [5] - The company's outlet business saw a 14% increase in sales and a 31% increase in foot traffic in 2023 compared to 2021, with significant growth during holiday periods [21] - The company's ZX Creative Field achieved sales of 300 million yuan in 2023, with foot traffic exceeding 9.5 million, and a year-on-year sales increase of 84% in the first three quarters of 2023 [10] Market Trends and Opportunities - The "Guzi" economy, driven by the popularity of ACGN subculture, is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 308.9 billion yuan by 2029 [15] - Traditional department stores are increasingly incorporating ACGN-related brands and themed areas to attract young consumers, with over 20 first and second-tier cities in China developing ACGN consumption landmarks [17] - The company's early adoption of the "Guzi" economy and its focus on outlet formats position it well to benefit from these emerging market trends [17][20]