房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 12 月月报 12 月新房成交同比降幅收窄，二手房降幅扩大；全年新房成交 同比降幅收窄，二手房同比增速由正转负 核心观点 【新房成交】 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 相关研究报告 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产行业 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 证券分析师：许佳璐 (8621)20328710 jialu.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 12 月新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄。12 月 40 城新房成交面积环比+33.6%，同比-32.1%，同比降幅收窄 6.6pct。我们认为，影响 居民购房能力及购房意愿的收入与就业预期尚未根本性扭转，市场信心仍然不足，叠加 25Q1 销售的基数也相对较高，我们预计 26Q1 市场仍 将面 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline expanding [3][13] - Second-hand home transaction area has increased month-on-month and turned positive year-on-year [3][13] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has increased [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 16,000 units, down 16.2% month-on-month and down 32.2% year-on-year [14][20] - The new home transaction area was 151.5 million square meters, down 9.7% month-on-month and down 39.6% year-on-year [22][39] - Transaction volume and area for first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed varying declines [14][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transaction volume was 20,000 units, up 2.9% month-on-month and up 9.1% year-on-year [49][51] - The transaction area was 188.2 million square meters, up 4.4% month-on-month and up 18.1% year-on-year [51][52] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities exhibited different growth rates in transaction volume and area [45][49] 3. Inventory Situation - New home inventory in 12 cities was 1.373 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [35][38] - The de-stocking cycle for new home inventory was 17.7 months, increasing month-on-month and year-on-year [27][38] - Inventory levels and de-stocking cycles varied across city tiers [26][27] 4. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,044.9 million square meters, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 0.4% year-on-year [59][60] - Total land transaction value was 16.33 billion yuan, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 15.5% year-on-year [10][65] - The average land price per square meter was 1,562.8 yuan, up 1.7% month-on-month but down 15.8% year-on-year [10][61] 5. Policy Insights - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to support urban renewal [3] - Emphasis on stabilizing housing prices and improving market confidence through various policy measures [3][11]

转自：新华财经 "非遗"醒狮点睛，传统鼓舞献瑞，1月23日，济南海那城百联奥特莱斯（以下简称"奥莱"）二期迎来正式开业。一二期项目总体量达15万平方米，集合近300 个品牌，以"园、湖、街、盒"四大主题场景构筑起一座3A级景区式商业空间，为消费者提供"购物+休闲+旅游"的一站式体验。这是百联奥莱全国布局的重 要落子，也折射出百联奥莱的加速迭代，为消费市场持续注入澎湃动能。 百联股份总经理曹海伦表示，"海那城百联奥莱二期项目不仅仅是物理空间的扩容，更是商业模式与消费体验的突破性升级。百联股份推动从交易场到体验 场的认知革新，凸显品牌精神的表达与消费情绪的共鸣，旗舰、首发、策展等关键词应运而生，共同助力百联奥莱实现从单一购物场所向文旅商体展多业融 合的微度假目的地场景跃迁，更成为激发城市活力的重要枢纽。" 图为济南海那城百联奥莱二期开业仪式现场 打造标杆，探索奥莱业态新范式 近年来，在传统零售增速趋缓的背景下，奥莱业态却逆势增长，成为零售业中一条充满韧性的赛道。这一趋势既精准契合了消费者对"高性价比"的追求，也 顺应了情感共鸣与深度体验的消费新潮。 作为国内奥莱业态的创新引领者，百联股份持续深耕，从品牌首发势能聚 ...

证券日报网讯 1月23日，百联股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司严格遵循企业会计准则的规 定编制财务报表，历年年度报告审计机构均出具标准的无保留意见，公司不存在净资产虚假的情况。管 理团队任期内勤勉尽责，未来将持续努力提升公司的内在价值与核心竞争力，促进持续稳定发展。 （编辑 丛可心） ...

证券日报网讯1月23日，百联股份（600827）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，管理团队任期内勤勉 尽责，持续推进标杆商业打造、重点项目转型升级与优势业态拓展，积极聚焦供应链建设，提升营运质 量，深化产融协同。通过努力提升经营业绩水平，以期为投资者创造更大价值。 ...

证券日报网讯1月23日，百联股份（600827）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司与上港集团 （600018）为两家独立的上市公司。 ...

证券日报网讯1月23日，百联股份（600827）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司具备完善的项目 投资流程，并按《公司章程》履行了审议程序。公司通过优势业态拓展，推进战略项目落地，同时通过 标杆商业打造以及重点项目转型升级、聚焦供应链建设、深化产融协同等多重举措，旨在构建差异化优 势，努力为投资者创造良好回报。 ...

证券日报网讯 1月23日，百联股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，二级市场股价走势受资本市场情 绪以及宏观经济环境等综合因素的影响，公司生产经营一切正常，目前不存在应披露而未披露事项。公 司始终以提升经营质量与长期可持续发展作为市值管理的核心，高度重视维护全体股东的长远利益和公 司价值的稳健增长，力求以良好的业绩与稳健的分红回报广大投资者。 （编辑 任世碧） ...

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure, with all 70 cities experiencing a decline in second-hand housing prices for four consecutive months, indicating a "catch-up" phenomenon in first-tier cities [9][19] - The average year-on-year decline in new housing prices across 70 cities in 2025 was 3.8%, which is less than the 4.5% decline in 2024, marking three consecutive years of decline [4][12] - The average year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices was 6.3% in 2025, also less than the 7.4% decline in 2024, indicating a persistent downward trend for four years [4][12] Real Estate Market Performance - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, maintaining the same rate of decline as in November [4][12] - The total sales area in December was 93.99 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 17.3% [12][13] - The total investment in real estate development in December was 419.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, marking the largest single-month decline since 2000 [16][19] Housing Price Trends - In first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in December, with Shanghai showing a slight increase of 0.2%, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experienced varying declines [5][9] - The average year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities was 1.8% in 2025, a reduction of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][9] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month in December, with an average year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: stable companies with high sales and land reserve ratios in core cities, smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [10][20] - Companies such as China Resources Land, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou are highlighted for their strong market positions [10][20] - The report anticipates potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 2026, which could help stabilize the market [9][19]

奥莱是一个抗周期性强的业态。 这份高涨的"捡漏"热情也及时反映在了各大项目的销售业绩上。元旦假期，位于上海青浦的百联奥莱三 天销售过亿，同比增长106.2%，销售再创历史新高，同时客流达25.9万人次，同比增长64%；2025年底 开业的北京的湾里·王府井WellTown，截至1月3日，开业累积客流高达245万人次，累计销售额突破2亿 元…… "还会再去的。"在刚刚过去的周末，身在广州的林霖（化名）一时兴起去当地的一家奥特莱斯逛街，原 本只是想去碰碰运气"捡漏"，没想到直接收获了多个心仪物件，"很多人都携家带口，试衣服都要排 队"。 像林霖这样的年轻消费者越来越多。他们在愉快"捡漏"的同时，也推动着奥莱的蓬勃发展。据中国商业 联合会奥特莱斯分会数据，2024年7月至2025年6月间，全国205个品质化奥特莱斯项目实现销售额1800 亿元，同比增长8.9%；客流量近9亿人次，同比增幅达12.5%，奥莱已成零售地产的韧性赛道。 这背后的重要驱动力来自消费趋势的转变。业内认为，近年来消费者回归理性，更加注重性价比，同时 奥莱对运动、休闲服饰和生活方式品类的重点亦契合了当前的经济环境；而且奥莱位于近郊或生态良好 的区 ...