TLC(002466) 华安证券·2024-12-13 03:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (首次) [2] Core Viewpoints - Tianqi Lithium is a leading global lithium company with significant resource advantages, holding high-quality lithium mines and salt lake resources. The company has strategically positioned itself in China, Australia, and Chile, owning over 55 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resources, with equity resources exceeding 14 million tons LCE. The company controls 26% of the Greenbushes mine, which is the lowest-cost and highest-grade lithium spodumene mine globally, and 22% of the Atacama salt lake, which accounts for 42% of the global salt lake supply in 2023 [4][23]. - The company is advancing multiple lithium compound production projects, with leading capacity and advanced technology. The Sichuan Shehong production base has an annual capacity of approximately 24,000 tons of lithium chemical products, while the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang base is the only fully automated battery-grade lithium carbonate production facility currently in operation globally, with a capacity of 20,000 tons [4][61]. - The industry is experiencing a clearing phase, with declining lithium carbonate prices leading to reduced project returns and a slowdown in expansion plans. High-cost domestic mica mines and some Australian mines have begun to reduce or halt production due to loss pressures, highlighting Tianqi's resource advantages as a high self-sufficiency lithium company [4][72]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be -4.862 billion, 2.629 billion, and 4.471 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24 and 14 for 2025-2026, thus initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [4][76]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tianqi Lithium Industries focuses on the lithium industry, covering key stages of the lithium supply chain, including the development of hard rock lithium resources, processing and sales of lithium concentrates, and production and sales of lithium chemical products. The company has a stable and concentrated shareholding structure, with experienced core management [21][45]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has strategically laid out its lithium resources globally, owning two lithium mines and two salt lakes, achieving 100% self-sufficiency in lithium resources. The Greenbushes mine and the Atacama salt lake are key projects, with the former being the largest and highest-grade lithium mine globally and the latter being the highest-producing lithium salt lake [23][52]. - The company operates five lithium compound production bases, with a total capacity of 88,800 tons per year, and plans to exceed 140,000 tons per year in the medium term [4][61]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported total revenue and net profit of 40.503 billion and 7.297 billion yuan in 2023, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +0.1% and -69.8%. The company expects a recovery in performance due to the resumption of demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage batteries [29][38]. - The forecast for lithium concentrate sales is 920,000 tons in 2024, 1,000,000 tons in 2025, and 1,100,000 tons in 2026, with lithium salt total sales projected at 75,000 tons, 85,000 tons, and 90,000 tons for the same years [72][73].