XUEDA(000526) 华源证券·2024-12-13 03:55Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Xueda Education (000526 SZ) for the first time, citing its deep expertise in personalized education and the potential for vocational education to drive a second growth curve [2] Core Views - Xueda Education has over 20 years of experience in personalized education, with more than 240 learning centers across 100+ cities as of H1 2024 [2] - The company is expanding into vocational education, cultural reading, and medical-education integration to diversify its business [2] - Founder Jin Xin regained control of the company in 2021 after a period of financial difficulties, stabilizing the ownership structure [2] - The company is transitioning from one-on-one tutoring to full-time education services, which is expected to improve gross margins [4] - High school subject tutoring demand is projected to remain strong, with peak enrollment expected in 2030 and peak college entrance exam takers in 2035 [4] - The vocational education strategy aligns with national talent development goals, with recent acquisitions expanding its footprint in this sector [5] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached RMB 2 247 billion (YoY +25 3%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 176 million (YoY +50 16%) [5] Business Segments Personalized Education - Personalized education accounts for 81% of revenue, with a focus on K12 students [30] - Revenue from this segment is expected to grow at 15%/20%/20% annually from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 2 165 billion, RMB 2 598 billion, and RMB 3 117 billion respectively [11] Full-time Education - Full-time education, targeting high school repeaters and art students, contributed 14% of revenue in H1 2024 [30] - Revenue from this segment is projected to grow at 53%/20%/18% annually from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 362 million, RMB 434 million, and RMB 512 million respectively [11] Vocational Education - Vocational education, including secondary and higher vocational education, currently contributes 1% of revenue [30] - Revenue from this segment is expected to grow at 72%/50%/45% annually from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 50 million, RMB 75 million, and RMB 109 million respectively [11] Cultural Reading - The company operates 10 cultural reading spaces under the "Juxiang Bookstore" brand, contributing to its education ecosystem [54] - Revenue from this segment is projected to grow at 119%/50%/45% annually from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 30 million, RMB 45 million, and RMB 65 million respectively [11] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 36 0%, 36 3%, and 36 5% in 2024-2026 due to the increasing contribution of full-time education [12] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 2 676 billion, RMB 3 229 billion, and RMB 3 884 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 205 million, RMB 264 million, and RMB 335 million respectively [6] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is 28X, 22X, and 17X, lower than the average PE of comparable companies [6] Industry Outlook - The vocational education market in China is expected to exceed RMB 1 trillion by 2024 [34] - The number of high school students and college entrance exam takers is projected to peak in 2030 and 2035, ensuring sustained demand for high school subject tutoring [33] - The "Double Reduction" policy has significantly reduced the supply of after-school tutoring institutions, benefiting leading companies like Xueda Education [33]