Winner Medical(SZ:300888) Guoxin Securities·2024-12-13 04:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's consumer goods business is expected to accelerate growth due to enhanced marketing efforts and industry events, with sales growth for core products exceeding 30% in October and November 2024 [3][4] - The medical segment has returned to normalized growth after the high base effect from pandemic-related products has diminished, and the acquisition of GRI is anticipated to enhance overseas capacity and channel expansion [3][4] Summary by Sections Consumer Segment - The company focuses on 100% cotton products, which has led to a recovery in market share and rapid sales growth for its core product, cotton soft towels. The brand "PurCotton" and "Princess Nais" have shown significant sales increases, with a 41.5% year-on-year growth in October and November [4][5] - The implementation of national standards for cotton soft towels has improved market conditions, and the company has invested in consumer education regarding material differences [5][6] - The company plans to open approximately 100 new stores annually, focusing on enhancing product categories and improving store efficiency to drive profitability [4][30] Medical Segment - The medical business has seen a return to double-digit growth, with a 13.1% increase in revenue in the third quarter, driven by regular medical consumables [30] - The acquisition of GRI is expected to yield synergies in production, sales networks, and product offerings, enhancing profitability in the long term [30][31] - The company has reported a significant increase in sales through online channels, with a 35% growth for the "Princess Nais" brand in the wake of negative events affecting competitors [17][18] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue growth forecasts for the consumer segment upward, expecting net profits to reach 8.1 billion, 10.6 billion, and 12.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 39.4%, 31.1%, and 15.4% [4][36] - The target price has been adjusted to 43-47 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 24-26x for 2025 [4][36]