LEAPMOTOR(09863) 国信证券·2024-12-13 07:18Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company, with a target market value range of 449-505 billion yuan, corresponding to a stock price of 35.92-40.41 HKD [2][360][369]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in domestic sales, with a significant increase in new model launches and an expansion of its sales channels, particularly through collaboration with Stellantis for international market entry [2][21][88]. - The company has achieved a turnaround in gross profit, with a gross margin of 8.10% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in profitability as sales volumes increase [2][39][342]. - The company is set to launch new models (C10/C16) in 2024, which are expected to drive sales growth, with a cumulative sales increase of 100% year-on-year from January to November 2024 [2][53][54]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 314.13 billion, 561.00 billion, and 814.00 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to shift from losses of -37.21 billion and -5.78 billion in 2024 and 2025 to a profit of 23.72 billion in 2026 [3][342][351]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in sales volume, with domestic retail expected to reach 287,561 units in 2024 and 419,000 units in 2025 [342][345]. Market Dynamics - The global automotive market is segmented into five major regions, with the EU expected to become a significant growth area for Chinese automotive brands due to favorable tariff conditions and a growing preference for low-energy vehicles [2][100][129]. - The EU market for passenger vehicles is approximately 10 million units, with a notable shift towards small, low-energy vehicles, creating opportunities for Chinese brands to penetrate this market [2][105][129]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its strong product capabilities, full-stack self-research in electronic and electrical architecture, and international partnerships to enhance its competitive position [2][21][81]. - The "Four-Leaf Clover" architecture, which integrates multiple functionalities into a single system, supports the company's strategy of low-cost, high-intelligence vehicle production [2][82][86]. International Expansion - The establishment of "Leap International" in partnership with Stellantis marks a strategic move to expand into international markets, with plans to open over 500 sales points globally by the end of 2025 [2][88][330]. - The company has already opened 339 stores in 13 European countries, indicating a strong start to its international sales strategy [2][330][331].