CCTC(300408) 国信证券·2024-12-13 08:58Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Sanhuan Group (300408 SZ) [1][4] Core Views - Sanhuan Group's high-capacity MLCC products are entering a rapid growth phase, leveraging its vertical integration advantages [1] - The company's 3Q24 gross margin increased QoQ, though profits were slightly impacted by higher financial expenses [1] - MLCC cycle has bottomed out, with high-capacity products entering an explosive growth period [1] - The company's diversified business layout, including optical communication components and SOFC components, provides long-term growth momentum [1] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue reached 5 381 billion yuan (YoY +31 05%), with net profit attributable to parent company of 1 603 billion yuan (YoY +40 38%) [1] - 3Q24 revenue was 1 953 billion yuan (YoY +32 29%, QoQ +4 81%), with net profit attributable to parent company of 578 million yuan (YoY +40 59%, QoQ -2 50%) [1] - Gross margin for 3Q24 was 44 30% (YoY +4 42pct, QoQ +0 93pct) [1] Business Segments - MLCC business: Covers mainstream specifications from 0201 to 2220 sizes, with future expansion focusing on high-capacity products [1] - Optical communication components: Products like ceramic ferrules and MT ferrules benefit from AI-driven computing infrastructure growth [1] - SOFC components: Expanded from upstream SOFC separator plates to complete SOFC power generation systems [1] Valuation and Forecast - Estimated 2024-2026 revenue growth of 29 3%/21 2%/16 6% to 7 41/8 98/10 47 billion yuan [1] - Estimated 2024-2026 net profit growth of 41 2%/17 8%/18 0% to 2 23/2 63/3 10 billion yuan [1] - Current PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 31/26/22x [1] - Fair value estimated at 41 16-43 90 yuan, representing 7 5%-14 7% premium over current price [1][4] Industry Analysis - MLCC industry is one of the least localized sectors in passive components, with Sanhuan achieving deep integration from materials to equipment [1] - AI innovation is driving demand for high-capacity MLCC products [1] - Optical communication components benefit from data center and fiber optic infrastructure growth [1] Competitive Advantages - Vertical integration in ceramic materials provides cost control and R&D innovation capabilities [1] - Global leadership in products like ceramic ferrules, alumina ceramic substrates, and SOFC electrolyte separators [9] - Established relationships with key domestic clients like Hikvision, Dahua, Haier, and Huaxing [9]