CHINA RES POWER(00836) 华泰证券·2024-12-15 08:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing improved profitability in renewable energy and future transformation prospects [1] Core Views - The company's wind power generation increased significantly in 2H24, with a 26.3% YoY growth in 3Q24 and a 52.6% YoY surge in September 2024 [2] - The report raises the 2024E wind power generation forecast by 3.3% to 43.2 billion kWh, driven by improved wind conditions and new grid-connected wind power installations [2] - Renewable energy net profit margin is expected to increase by 3.4 percentage points to 38% in 2024E, leading to a 9.2% upward revision of renewable energy attributable net profit to 9.18 billion yuan [2] - The company completed a share placement of 198.5 million shares, increasing total shares by 4.1% to 5.00894 billion shares [3] - The report adjusts 2024-26E renewable energy attributable net profit forecasts by +9.2%/+3.9%/-9.0%, reflecting changes in new energy installation targets and power price expectations [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to decline by 1.24% in 2024E but grow by 8.07% and 8.50% in 2025E and 2026E respectively [6] - Attributable net profit is expected to increase by 34.49% in 2024E, reaching 14.798 billion HKD [6] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 2.95 HKD in 2024E to 3.53 HKD in 2026E [6] - ROE is projected to remain above 16% from 2024E to 2026E [6] - The target price is set at 30.69 HKD, representing a 63.4% upside from the current price of 18.78 HKD [4][8] Valuation - The report values the company's thermal power and renewable energy segments at 0.9x and 18x 2025E PB/PE respectively [4] - The target market capitalization is set at 153.708 billion HKD, with a 25% discount reflecting potential impacts of new energy spin-off [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 6.36x in 2024E to 5.32x in 2026E [6] Operational Highlights - Cumulative wind power generation for Jan-Oct 2024 reached 35.8 billion kWh, a 13.7% YoY increase [2] - The company's new energy impairment in 2023 was significant at 1.643 billion yuan, but the government is actively addressing renewable energy subsidy receivables [2] - The share issuance to Huarong Group's subsidiary was approved with a 94.6% voting rate, expected to dilute EPS by 7.08% initially [3]