XUSHENG(603305) 国盛证券·2024-12-15 14:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company plans to establish a production base in Thailand, furthering its global expansion strategy with an investment of up to 90 million USD [2] - The recovery in sales from core customers, particularly Tesla, positions the company to continue benefiting in the future [2] - The company possesses three core lightweight manufacturing processes: die-casting, forging, and extrusion, which enhances its production capabilities [3] - The company has a strong order backlog from major clients including Tesla, Li Auto, and XPeng, indicating robust demand [3] - The financial forecast estimates net profits for 2024-2026 at 450 million, 570 million, and 680 million CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33, 27, and 22 [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 4,454 million CNY, with a growth rate of 47.3% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024 is 4,695 million CNY, reflecting a decline of 2.9% [4] - Net profit for 2022 was 701 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 69.7%. The forecast for 2024 is 452 million CNY, indicating a significant decline of 36.7% [4] - The latest diluted EPS for 2022 was 0.75 CNY, expected to drop to 0.48 CNY in 2024 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2022 was 12.5%, projected to decrease to 6.7% in 2024 [4] Cash Flow and Investment Activities - Operating cash flow for 2023 is projected at 1,360 million CNY, with net profit expected at 451 million CNY [9] - The company has significant capital expenditures, with 1,225 million CNY planned for 2024 [9] - The net increase in cash for 2024 is expected to be 491 million CNY [9]