旭升集团（603305.SH）系列点评四 ➢ 25Q1 业绩略承压 新项目有望带动业绩增长。1）收入端：公司 2024Q4 营 收 11.35 亿元，同比-9.86%，环比+0.85%；2025Q1 营收 10.46 亿元，同比- 8.12%，环比-7.76%。公司大客户特斯拉 2025Q1 全球交付 33.67 万辆，同比- 12.96%，环比-32.06%，公司收入端表现显著优于大客户销量降幅；2）利润端： 公司 2024 年度归母净利润 4.16 亿元，同比-41.71%；2024Q4 归母净利润 0.93 亿元，同比-37.48%，环比+60.25%；2025Q1 归母净利润 0.96 亿元，同比- 39.15%，环比+2.53%，经营性利润环比持续提升，同比下降主要系毛利率下降 影响。2024Q4 公司毛利率为 17.55%，同比-3.31pct，环比-0.67pct；2025Q1 毛利率为 20.80%，同比-3.01pct，环比+3.25pct，毛利水平环比逐步回升；3） 费用端： 公 司 2024Q4 销 售 / 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 为 - 1.17%/5.00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for growth relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.409 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 416 million yuan, down 41.71% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.046 billion yuan, a decline of 8.12% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 96 million yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is experiencing pressure on its performance but anticipates growth from new projects [2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 1.135 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 9.86% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.85% [2]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 17.55%, down 3.31 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross margin of 20.80%, reflecting a recovery trend [2][3]. - The company has a significant customer base, including Tesla, which delivered 336,700 vehicles globally in Q1 2025, a decrease of 12.96% year-on-year [2]. Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - The company has secured approximately 1.9 billion yuan in orders from major North American electric vehicle manufacturers and is progressing with its overseas capacity expansion, including a base in Mexico expected to commence production in 2025 [3]. - The company is advancing its magnesium alloy technology and has initiated collaborations in the humanoid robot sector, focusing on joint shell and torso structure components [3]. Financial Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.472 billion yuan, 6.721 billion yuan, and 8.213 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 527 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 809 million yuan [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.55 yuan in 2025, 0.68 yuan in 2026, and 0.85 yuan in 2027, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 19, and 15, respectively [4][5].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 26 年 月 日 旭升集团（603305.SH） 客户销量波动拖累业绩表现，新兴业务维持高增 事件：公司 2024 年实现营收 44.1 亿元，同比-8.8%，归母净利润 4.2 亿 元，同比-42%，扣非归母净利润 3.6 亿元，同比-47%；2025Q1 实现营收 10.5 亿元，同比-8.1%，归母净利润 1.0 亿元，同比-39%，扣非归母净利 润 0.8 亿元，同比-43%。 客户销量波动拖累营收，新兴业务维持高增。单季度看，公司 2024Q4 实 现营收 11.3 亿元，同/环比分别-9.9%/+0.85%，归母净利润 0.9 亿元， 同 / 环比分别 -37%/+60% ； 2025Q1 营 收/ 归母净利润分别环比 - 8%/+2.5%。公司第一大客户特斯拉，2024Q4/2025Q1 销量分别为 49.6/33.7 万辆，环比+7%/-32%，我们预计公司汽车业务营收主要受特 斯拉销量波动影响。除汽车业务外，公司新兴业务维持高增：1）储能业务 与多个客户建立合作关系，2024 年多个项目进入量产阶段，全年实现营 收约 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a 6-month target price of 14.4 CNY per share [5][7]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a phase of performance pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 4.409 billion CNY, down 8.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 416 million CNY, down 41.71% year-on-year [1][5]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to fluctuations in Tesla's production, which is expected to decrease by 4% in 2024 [2][5]. - The company is actively expanding into new business areas, including humanoid robots, energy storage, and low-altitude economy, with significant projects entering mass production [4]. Revenue Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue is expected to be 44.09 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.79% year-on-year, with the top five customers accounting for 60% of total revenue [2][5]. - The overseas revenue share is 43%, showing a slight increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profit Summary - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected at 4.16 billion CNY, down 41.71% year-on-year, with a significant impact from the impairment of aluminum bottle business [3][5]. - The profit margin is under pressure due to increased costs and accounting policy changes, with a gross margin of 17.55% in Q4 2024, down 3.31 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Business Expansion Summary - The company is diversifying its business into humanoid robots, energy storage, and low-altitude economy, with several projects entering mass production in 2024 [4]. - The company is establishing production bases in North America and Southeast Asia, aiming for a global footprint [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, but there are signs of improvement in profitability in Q1 2025, with potential growth opportunities in lightweight technology for robotics [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.409 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.79% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 416 million, down 41.71% year-on-year - The adjusted net profit was 358 million, a decline of 46.76% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.046 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.12% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 96 million, down 39.15% year-on-year - The adjusted net profit was 81 million, a decline of 42.67% year-on-year [1] Profitability Improvement - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.80%, an increase of 3.25 percentage points quarter-on-quarter - The net profit margin was 9.14%, up 1.16 percentage points quarter-on-quarter - The company is expected to enhance profitability further as capacity utilization improves [2] Growth Opportunities - The company is focusing on lightweight technology in robotics, which is a key development direction - It is leveraging its expertise in aluminum alloy precision processing to develop critical products such as joint shells and torso components - The company has secured projects from multiple domestic and international clients, indicating potential new growth points in the robotics sector [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 501 million, 648 million, and 833 million respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21%, 29%, and 29% - As of April 25, the market capitalization corresponds to PE ratios of 24 and 19 for 2025 and 2026 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.409 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.79% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 416 million yuan, down 41.71% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.046 billion yuan, a decline of 8.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 96 million yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on lightweight technology and has made significant investments in the robotics sector, which is expected to open new growth opportunities [4] - The company’s gross margin improved to 20.80% in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 9.14%, indicating enhanced profitability [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 501 million, 648 million, and 833 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 20%, 29%, and 29% [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to increase from 4.409 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.693 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 416 million yuan in 2024 to 833 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery [3] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.7% by 2027, showing a gradual improvement from 20.3% in 2024 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 29.22 in 2024 to 14.43 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.409 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.79%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 416 million yuan, down 41.71% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.046 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 96 million yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on lightweight technology and has made significant investments in the robotics sector, which is expected to open new growth opportunities [4] - The company’s gross margin improved to 20.80% in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 9.14%, indicating enhanced profitability [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 501 million yuan, 648 million yuan, and 833 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 21%, 29%, and 29% respectively [4] - The company maintains a market valuation corresponding to a PE ratio of 24 and 19 times for 2025 and 2026 respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 4.834 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, while the forecast for 2024 is 4.409 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.8% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 714 million yuan, with a slight increase of 1.8%, while the forecast for 2024 is 416 million yuan, a decrease of 41.7% [3] - The gross margin for 2023 was 23.8%, expected to decrease to 20.3% in 2024, and forecasted to recover to 20.5% in 2025 [3] - The company's return on equity (ROE) was 11.4% in 2023, projected to decline to 6.3% in 2024, and gradually improve to 9.4% by 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.77 yuan, expected to drop to 0.45 yuan in 2024, and forecasted to rise to 0.87 yuan by 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Xusheng Group Co., Ltd. reported a solid financial performance for 2024, with a focus on lightweight aluminum alloy technology and expansion into emerging sectors such as energy storage and humanoid robotics [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.409 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 416 million RMB [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.80 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 355 million RMB [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.046 billion RMB and a net profit of approximately 95.64 million RMB [4]. Business Development - The company has secured approximately 1.9 billion RMB in orders from mainstream electric vehicle platforms in North America and has concentrated on key projects with major domestic new energy manufacturers [2]. - In 2024, revenue from energy storage projects reached about 234 million RMB, representing over a 200% year-on-year growth [3]. - The company is actively developing key products for humanoid robotics, including joint shells and torso components, and has established partnerships with several domestic and international clients [3]. Strategic Expansion - Xusheng Group has established a triangular production network in "China + North America + Southeast Asia," enhancing its dual-track strategy of "technology going global" and "local coexistence" [4]. - The company is focusing on magnesium alloy products, having successfully developed a semi-solid injection molded motor housing and initiated cooperation on magnesium alloy electric drive housing projects with foreign clients [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 aligns with expectations, with total revenue of 4.409 billion yuan, down 8.79% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 416.26 million yuan, down 41.71% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.135 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.86% year-on-year, but a slight increase of 0.85% quarter-on-quarter. The first quarter of 2025 reported revenue of 1.046 billion yuan, down 8.12% year-on-year and 7.76% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 960 million yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year but up 2.53% quarter-on-quarter [10][11] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 554.42 million yuan and 682.98 million yuan, respectively, due to declining sales from major customers and cost-cutting demands. However, the overseas and robotics businesses are expected to enter a harvest period, justifying the "Buy" rating [3][10] Financial Summary - For 2023A, total revenue was 4.834 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.54%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 714.10 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. The latest diluted EPS was 0.75 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 16.71 [1][3] - The financial forecasts for 2024A to 2027E show a projected total revenue of 4.409 billion yuan in 2024, with a decline of 8.79%, and an expected recovery in subsequent years, reaching 7.575 billion yuan by 2027. The net profit is expected to recover from 416.26 million yuan in 2024 to 802.77 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.44 yuan to 0.84 yuan [1][3][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 aligns with expectations, with total revenue of 4.409 billion yuan, down 8.79% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 416.26 million yuan, down 41.71% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.135 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.86% year-on-year, but a slight increase of 0.85% quarter-on-quarter. The first quarter of 2025 reported revenue of 1.046 billion yuan, down 8.12% year-on-year and 7.76% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 960 million yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year but up 2.53% quarter-on-quarter [10][11] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 554.42 million yuan and 682.98 million yuan, respectively, due to declining sales from major clients and cost-cutting demands. However, the overseas and robotics businesses are expected to enter a harvest period, justifying the "Buy" rating [3][10] Financial Summary - For 2023A, total revenue was 4.834 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.54%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 714.10 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. The latest diluted EPS was 0.75 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 16.71 [1][11] - The financial forecasts for 2024A to 2027E show total revenues of 4.409 billion yuan, 5.350 billion yuan, 6.420 billion yuan, and 7.575 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 416.26 million yuan, 554.42 million yuan, 682.98 million yuan, and 802.77 million yuan. The EPS for these years is projected to be 0.44 yuan, 0.58 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 0.84 yuan, with P/E ratios of 28.67, 21.53, 17.48, and 14.87, respectively [1][3][11] Business Development - The company is actively expanding its robotics business, focusing on key product development such as joint shells and torso structure components. It has secured projects from multiple domestic and international clients, indicating a forthcoming harvest period. Additionally, the company is establishing production bases in Mexico and Thailand to enhance its global footprint and transition into a lightweight component supplier [10][11]