SAIC MOTOR(600104) 民生证券·2024-12-16 09:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a closing price of 18.74 CNY on December 13, 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 21/17/15 for the years 2024-2026 [5][127]. Core Insights - The new management team is actively driving reforms across three major segments, focusing on resource integration and marketing enhancement to accelerate the transition to smart electric vehicles [3][40][125]. - The company is expected to benefit from state-owned enterprise reforms, potentially leading to a turnaround in its performance [3][127]. - The report forecasts revenues of 676.9 billion CNY, 707.4 billion CNY, and 747.0 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 10.44 billion CNY, 12.90 billion CNY, and 14.63 billion CNY for the same years [4][127]. Summary by Sections Management Changes - The company has undergone significant management changes, with a new president emphasizing resource integration and collaboration among various business units [3][21][40]. - The management team is characterized by a younger demographic, bringing experience in technology, marketing, and supply chain management [27][34]. Joint Ventures - SAIC Volkswagen is focusing on profitable fuel vehicles while transitioning to electric vehicles, with plans to launch two new electric models by 2026 [3][53]. - SAIC General Motors is shifting its focus to key models like Buick and Cadillac, reducing emphasis on lower-end Chevrolet models, and accelerating the introduction of hybrid vehicles [3][59]. Independent Brands - The independent brand segment has faced challenges, with total sales declining by 25.1% year-on-year to 1.958 million units in 2024M1-11 [3][65]. - The company plans to enhance brand integration and efficiency, leveraging new technologies in hybrid and electric vehicles [3][82]. Financial Projections - The report projects a decline in revenue for 2024, followed by a recovery in 2025 and 2026, with expected growth rates of -9.1%, 4.5%, and 5.6% respectively [4][113]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 10% by 2026 [4][113]. Market Expansion - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with production bases in Thailand, Indonesia, and India, although recent export figures have shown a decline [3][91]. - The report highlights the importance of adapting to potential EU tariffs on electric vehicles, which could impact competitiveness in the European market [3][103].