Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yongxing Co Ltd (601033 SH) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 17 85 per share [3][5] Core Views - Yongxing Co Ltd is a regional leader in solid waste management with strong growth potential and high dividend payouts The company benefits from its backing by Guangzhou State-owned Assets and its dominant position in the Guangzhou waste-to-energy market [1][3] - The company has a stable business structure with 14 operational waste-to-energy projects and 4 biomass treatment projects primarily located in advantageous regions of Guangzhou [1][16] - Yongxing Co Ltd is expected to see steady growth in revenue and net profit driven by increased capacity utilization and the disposal of aged landfill waste The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 3 688 billion RMB 4 165 billion and RMB 4 572 billion in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively with net profits of RMB 803 million RMB 959 million and RMB 1 126 billion [3][99] Business Overview - Yongxing Co Ltd is the sole investment and operator of waste-to-energy projects in Guangzhou with a total daily capacity of 32 090 tons for waste incineration and 2 590 tons for biomass treatment [1][16] - The company has a strong focus on R&D with 426 patents including 22 invention patents and has developed advanced incineration technologies such as the ACC automatic incineration control system which has an automation rate of over 95% [36][38] - The company is expected to reach a waste incineration capacity utilization rate of 91% by 2026 with further potential increases through the co-incineration of industrial solid waste [2][64] Financial Performance - Yongxing Co Ltd has demonstrated consistent revenue and profit growth with a CAGR of 24 87% for revenue and 55 51% for net profit from 2019 to 2023 In 2023 the company reported revenues of RMB 3 536 billion and a net profit of RMB 735 million [21][24] - The company's operating cash flow is robust with RMB 1 721 billion in 2023 which is more than double its net profit ensuring strong dividend payout capabilities [87][91] - Yongxing Co Ltd has committed to a high dividend policy with a minimum payout ratio of 60% of distributable profits for the years 2023-2025 [3][91] Industry Context - The waste-to-energy industry in China has transitioned from a growth phase to a mature phase with declining new project awards and capital expenditures The industry is now focused on improving operational efficiency and profitability [79][80] - Yongxing Co Ltd is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's shift towards operational excellence and cost efficiency given its advanced technologies and strong regional presence [2][79] Valuation and Projections - The report values Yongxing Co Ltd at a 2024 PE multiple of 20x resulting in a target market capitalization of RMB 16 1 billion and a target price of RMB 17 85 per share [3][105] - The company's valuation is supported by its strong growth prospects high dividend yield and favorable industry position [3][105]
永兴股份：兼具成长性与高分红的区域固废治理龙头