Jinko Power(601778) 华源证券·2024-12-17 00:13Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this context [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading private photovoltaic enterprise, focusing on clean energy supply and services. It has developed an integrated solution capability for photovoltaic projects, including development, construction, operation, and asset trading [4][23]. - The company's revenue for 2023 reached 4.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.72%. The revenue breakdown shows that photovoltaic power station development and operation accounted for 74.4%, EPC services for 6.6%, and household photovoltaic station development for 14.8% [5][25]. - The company has a significant amount of unrecovered subsidies, approximately 6 billion yuan, which constitutes about 37% of its net assets. This presents a potential opportunity for value release if these subsidies are recovered [6][72]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2011 and listed in 2020, is backed by its major shareholder, Jinko Group, which holds a 23.9% stake as of September 2024. It specializes in photovoltaic power station operation and development [4][23]. 2. Business Structure and Performance - The company has optimized its asset structure, with a focus on cash flow improvement. The transition from subsidy-dependent projects to more market-driven projects is expected to enhance cash generation capabilities [5][45]. - The company has engaged in asset trading since 2018, with significant sales in 2020-2023, indicating a strategic shift towards asset monetization [5][25]. 3. Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the company achieved a total profit of 469 million yuan, with the sale of power stations contributing approximately 375 million yuan, accounting for 51.7% of the adjusted profit total [5][35]. - The report forecasts net profits of 516 million, 738 million, and 747 million yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34.58%, 43.09%, and 1.22% respectively [6][79]. 4. Subsidy and Cash Flow Analysis - The company has maintained a stable scale of new electricity subsidies between 1.2 billion and 1.4 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023. The proportion of subsidies in total revenue has decreased from 56.5% in 2021 to 44.3% in 2023, indicating a shift towards more sustainable revenue sources [5][67]. - The unrecovered subsidy amount is significant, and if recovered, it could provide a substantial boost to the company's stock price [6][72]. 5. Market Position and Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 21, 15, and 15 times, respectively. Comparatively, similar companies in the photovoltaic sector have an average P/E of 16 times for 2024 [6][79]. - The report emphasizes that as the quality of installed assets improves and the pace of station construction and transfer accelerates, the company's performance and stock price are expected to show resilience [6][79].