hbky(600985) 德邦证券·2024-12-17 09:20Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's controlling shareholder, Huaibei Mining Group, plans to increase its shareholding by RMB 300-500 million within 6 months, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development [5][6] - The company is a leading coking coal producer in East China, with over 70% of its reserves being high-quality coking coal and fat coal [7] - The Taohutu coal mine, currently under construction, is expected to contribute significant profits upon completion, with an estimated annual profit of RMB 1.671 billion [7] - The ethanol project has entered the harvest period, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons/year, making it the largest single-series production facility globally [8] - The company's revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of RMB 74.8 billion, RMB 79.8 billion, and RMB 85.3 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [8] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's net profit is expected to be RMB 5.006 billion, RMB 5.250 billion, and RMB 5.756 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 7.73x, 7.37x, and 6.72x, respectively [8] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 16.9%, 17.0%, and 17.3% for 2024-2026, respectively [10] - The company's ROE is expected to be 12.4%, 11.9%, and 12.0% for 2024-2026, respectively [10] Industry and Market Position - The company is a major coal producer in East China, with 17 coal production mines and a total approved production capacity of 35.85 million tons [7] - The company's coal reserves are characterized by low sulfur, very low phosphorus, medium volatility, strong cohesiveness, and good coking properties [7] - The company's ethanol project is the largest single-series production facility globally, with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year [8] Growth Drivers - The Taohutu coal mine, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, will add an annual production capacity of 8 million tons of high-calorific value thermal coal [7] - The company is accelerating the construction of 5 non-coal mines, which are expected to be completed by the end of 2024 [8] - The company is also expanding its chemical business, with projects including 100,000 tons of dimethyl carbonate, 30,000 tons of carbonate esters, and 30,000 tons of ethylamine under construction [8]