华新水泥：首次落子南美，骨料加速海外布局

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for Huaxin Cement (600801) [1] Core Views - Huaxin Cement has signed a share acquisition agreement to acquire 100% of Company A (which holds 60% of Company B) and 40% of Company B for a total consideration of $186.6 million, making the target companies wholly-owned subsidiaries upon completion [2] - This marks the company's first entry into the South American market, expanding its overseas aggregate business [3] - The target companies operate 4 aggregate plants in Brazil with a total capacity of 8.8 million tons/year (actual production of 6.2 million tons in 2023), located in the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil's economic and population center [3] - Brazil's construction industry is benefiting from government infrastructure investment and real estate market recovery, with cement sales growing 4.6$17.13 million in 2023 and $12.82 million in Jan-Sep 2024, implying a 11x P/E multiple based on 2023 earnings [3] - The company's overseas expansion continues with recent acquisitions in Nigeria and Brazil, adding 10.6 million tons/year of cement grinding capacity and 8.8 million tons/year of aggregate capacity [4] - By mid-2024, the company will operate 10 overseas aggregate plants (up from 6) with total overseas cement grinding capacity exceeding 33 million tons/year [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 33.76 billion in 2023 to RMB 42.96 billion in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 1.1%, 16.3%, and 8.2% in 2024-2026 respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline 36.7% YoY to RMB 1.75 billion in 2024, then recover to RMB 2.35 billion (+34.1% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 2.75 billion (+17.2% YoY) in 2026 [1] - EPS is expected to be RMB 0.84 in 2024, RMB 1.13 in 2025, and RMB 1.32 in 2026 [1] - P/E ratios are projected at 14.7x, 11.0x, and 9.4x for 2024-2026 respectively [1] Market Data - Current share price: RMB 12.35 [8] - 52-week range: RMB 9.91-16.09 [8] - Market cap: RMB 25.68 billion [8] - P/B ratio: 0.89x [8] Financial Position - Total assets: RMB 68.80 billion in 2023, projected to grow to RMB 80.50 billion by 2026 [12] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 51.52% [9] - ROE: 9.55% in 2023, expected to decline to 5.82% in 2024 before recovering to 8.29% by 2026 [12]