TOPSPORTS(06110) 开源证券·2024-12-17 14:54Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 滔搏 (06110 HK) due to expected performance recovery post inventory improvement and organizational adjustments [5] - FY2025Q3 saw a mid-single-digit decline in year-over-year (YoY) sales, with retail performing slightly better than wholesale and online outperforming offline [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1 33 billion 1 53 billion and 1 81 billion for FY2024-2026 respectively with current P/E ratios of 12 2x 10 6x and 9 0x [5] - Sales performance improved in December compared to Q3 with expectations of further improvement in main brand channels and product performance [5] Financial Performance - FY2025Q3 saw a slight improvement in offline foot traffic decline compared to H1 with online sales accounting for 40% of total sales up from 30% in FY2025H1 [5] - Discounts deepened in FY2025Q3 with offline discounts increasing while online discounts improved partially offsetting the negative impact of higher online sales proportion [5] - Inventory-to-sales ratio is expected to improve by the end of FY2025 with current ratios at 4-5 months slightly up due to seasonal and stocking differences [5] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating the淘汰 of underperforming offline stores while increasing the average store size and implementing integrated management across all channels [6] - Online the company is expanding its presence on platform e-commerce and building a content e-commerce advantage through a matrix-style live streaming system [6] - The company is坚持全域货品管理 including broadening inventory circulation and implementing precise price management across different channels to improve overall retail efficiency [6] Financial Summary and Valuation - Revenue for FY2023A FY2024A FY2025E FY2026E and FY2027E is projected at 27 073 million 28 933 million 26 710 million 28 309 million and 30 448 million respectively [6] - Net profit for the same periods is projected at 1 837 million 2 213 million 1 327 million 1 532 million and 1 810 million respectively [6] - Gross margin is expected to be 41 7% 41 8% 38 6% 40 2% and 40 7% for the respective fiscal years [6] - Net margin is projected at 6 8% 7 6% 5 0% 5 4% and 5 9% respectively [6] - ROE is expected to be 18 7% 22 5% 13 5% 15 6% and 18 4% for the respective fiscal years [6] - EPS (diluted) is projected at 0 3 0 4 0 2 0 2 and 0 3 respectively [6] - P/E ratios are expected to be 8 8x 7 3x 12 2x 10 6x and 9 0x respectively [6] - P/B ratios are projected at 1 7x 1 6x 1 6x 1 6x and 1 6x respectively [6]