Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongke Environmental [4][10]. Core Viewpoints - Zhongke Environmental, a waste incineration power generation company under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% over the next five years, reflecting confidence in its future development and shareholder returns [4][13]. - The company is actively expanding its heating services alongside its main waste incineration power generation business, which is expected to contribute to sustained profitability growth [6][36]. - The company has a robust project pipeline, with 10,500 tons/day of operational waste incineration capacity and an additional 5,450 tons/day under construction, primarily located in various provinces across China [6][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Zhongke Environmental - Zhongke Environmental was established in 2012 and completed its IPO in 2022. The largest shareholder is Zhongke Industrial Group, holding 57.75% of the shares, with the actual controller being the Chinese Academy of Sciences [4][24]. 2. Commitment to Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a stock incentive plan granting 28.816 million restricted shares at a price of 2.41 yuan/share, with performance targets set for net profit growth of 15%, 25%, and 40% from 2023 levels over the next three years [5][31]. - A five-year dividend commitment was made, ensuring a minimum cash dividend payout of 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2028 [5][13]. 3. Market Expansion and Growth Potential - The company achieved a heating volume of 1.12 million tons in 2023, positioning it among the industry leaders. The potential for heating projects is significant, with agreements signed for an additional annual heating volume of over 750,000 tons [6][41]. - The profitability from heating services is projected to be higher than from power generation, with estimates indicating a profit increase of 210-230 yuan per ton of waste incinerated for heating compared to electricity generation [36][48]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.38 billion, 1.86 billion, and 1.97 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 331 million, 379 million, and 459 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 22.8%, 14.6%, and 21.1% respectively [7][10]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 24, 21, and 17 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a favorable valuation considering future growth potential [10][49].
中科环保：中科院旗下垃圾焚烧发电企业 承诺分红率不低于60%