滔搏：期待消费刺激政策带动

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 2.83 HKD [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from consumer stimulus policies, focusing on non-essential consumption [1]. - The company has faced challenges with offline traffic decline but is expanding its online platforms and utilizing new customer acquisition methods [1]. - The report highlights the importance of deepening user engagement through personalized marketing strategies, which have resulted in a stable contribution of 60-70% from repeat members [1]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings and expanding brand partnerships to capture growth in emerging sports segments [1]. - The earnings forecast for FY25-27 is maintained, with projected revenues of 26.5 billion RMB, 28.5 billion RMB, and 29.9 billion RMB, and net profits of 1.39 billion RMB, 1.67 billion RMB, and 1.92 billion RMB respectively [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated "Accumulate" with a current price of 2.83 HKD and a target price set [1]. Business Performance - The company reported a decline in retail and wholesale sales, with a 2.1% decrease in gross sales area and a 4.4% year-on-year decline [1]. - New customer acquisition strategies include the use of mini-programs and partnerships with platforms like Douyin and Meituan [1]. User Engagement - The company is enhancing user experience through tailored product recommendations and marketing strategies, leading to increased user loyalty [1]. - High-value members contribute nearly 40% of total sales despite being a small percentage of total members [1]. Product Diversification - The company is expanding its brand collaboration matrix and entering new sports categories, including partnerships with HOKA ONE ONE and KAILAS [1]. - The company is also collaborating with Fanatics to expand the commercialization of sports IP in Greater China [1]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains the earnings forecast with projected revenues and net profits for FY25-27, along with EPS estimates of 0.22 RMB, 0.26 RMB, and 0.30 RMB respectively [1].