5i5j(000560) 国信证券·2024-12-18 10:15Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price range of 4.0-4.4 yuan, representing a 12%-23% upside from the current price [2][4] Core Views - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the shift towards secondary housing transactions, driven by policy tailwinds and long-term industry trends [2] - Secondary housing transactions accounted for 41% of national residential transaction value in 2023, up 11 percentage points from 2021 [2] - The company has a leading market position with 2,613 operating stores and approximately 30,000 agents as of Q3 2024 [2] Business Overview - The company operates three main businesses: brokerage (78% of GTV), new home sales (16%), and asset management (6%) [2] - Brokerage is the core business with a 3.1% market share and 1.8% commission rate, contributing ~90% of revenue from key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [2] - The asset management business, primarily through the "Xiangyu" brand, has grown steadily with 304,000 managed units as of Q3 2024 [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a turnaround in 2024, with Q1-Q3 net profit of 10 million yuan compared to a loss of 850 million yuan in 2023 [2] - Revenue in 2024 Q1-Q3 was 8.8 billion yuan, down 3% YoY, with a gross margin of 7.4% [2] - Brokerage business gross margin improved to 23% in H1 2024, while asset management business had a negative gross margin of -5% [2] Industry Trends - Secondary housing transactions have outperformed new home sales since 2021, with the ratio of secondary to new home transactions in 14 key cities reaching 2.0 in 2024 YTD, up from 1.5 in 2023 and 0.9 in 2019 [2][17] - Policy support since September 2024 has boosted secondary housing transaction volumes [2][17] - Urbanization and population migration to higher-tier cities continue to drive demand for secondary housing [29][30] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts 2024-2026 net profit of 160/280/390 million yuan, with EPS of 0.07/0.12/0.17 yuan [2] - The company's PE ratio is estimated at 53/30/21x for 2024-2026 [2][3] - FCFF valuation suggests a fair value of 4.0 yuan per share, while relative valuation supports a target of 4.4 yuan [2][161] Strategic Focus - The company has shifted to a self-operated model with franchise support, focusing on core cities [2] - It has reduced its footprint from 33 cities and 5,000 stores at its peak to 11 cities and 2,613 stores as of Q3 2024 [2][96] - The company maintains a strong market position in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, which account for ~70% of stores and ~90% of brokerage revenue [2][96]