嘉友国际更新报告：非洲拼图渐丰，业绩高增可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in cross-border multimodal transport in landlocked countries, with stable growth in the China-Mongolia market and significant potential in the African market, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid development of emerging markets along the Belt and Road, which may drive profits beyond market expectations [1] Summary by Sections 1. Cross-Border Logistics Leadership - The company focuses on cross-border logistics, investing in logistics infrastructure and customs supervision in landlocked countries, aiming to enhance its core competitiveness in cross-border logistics [23] - The second growth curve in Africa is anticipated to contribute significantly to profit growth, exceeding market expectations [23] 2. African Market Potential - The company leverages infrastructure upgrades to enhance cross-border multimodal transport, creating a network for seamless connectivity in Africa [30] - Investments in key projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia are expected to facilitate significant logistics demand growth, with the African logistics market estimated at $400-600 billion annually [37][31] 3. Mongolia Market Stability - The company's operations in Mongolia focus on the Gankhiyam port, which is crucial for coal and copper exports, ensuring steady growth in the Mongolia-China cross-border logistics market [39][44] - The company has secured a 20% stake in a mining operation, reinforcing its resource advantage and ensuring long-term growth in cross-border logistics [44] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 1.462 billion, 1.923 billion, and 2.323 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.85, 9.77, and 8.09 [52] - A target price of 29.52 yuan per share is set for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 54% [52]