YILI(600887) 诚通证券·2024-12-19 02:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (伊利股份) [1] Core Views - Yili's revenue growth has been under pressure, but the decline has narrowed compared to the second quarter, with net profit continuing to grow. For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 89.039 billion yuan, down 8.59% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.868 billion yuan, up 15.87% [1] - The company is expected to stabilize by the end of the year, benefiting from a decrease in raw milk costs and effective expense management. The fourth quarter is anticipated to show improved revenue growth as inventory adjustments in liquid milk channels conclude [1] - Yili maintains a strong position in the domestic dairy industry, with a solid brand advantage and robust channel expansion capabilities. The company has diversified its product offerings across various categories, including liquid milk, milk beverages, and infant nutrition products, which have shown good growth [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Yili's revenue was 29.125 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.67% year-on-year, while net profit was 3.337 billion yuan, an increase of 8.53%. The gross margin improved to 34.81%, up 1.90 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company expects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 177.4 billion yuan, 123.0 billion yuan, and 129.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.6%, 4.8%, and 5% [1][4] Market Position - Yili's market share continues to rise, with the company ranking first in retail sales for liquid milk and ice cream. The market share for infant formula has increased by 2 percentage points year-on-year to 13.2% [1] - The company has been actively enhancing its digital transformation strategy across both online and offline channels, which has contributed to its market leadership [1] Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Yili is 15.6 times, compared to the industry average of 21.4 times. The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.4, 15.2, and 14.4 times, respectively [1][4]