TANSUN(300872) 国金证券·2024-12-19 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company acquired exclusive perpetual licensing rights for SS&C's Algorithmics (Algo) market risk and FRTB software products in mainland China for $14 million, along with intellectual property rights for a localized version compliant with China's IT innovation standards [1] - The company also secured exclusive distribution and service provider rights for Algo products in mainland China and priority cooperation rights in regions like Hong Kong, Macau, and Southeast Asia, with a $2 million investment in customized support services over 5 years [1] - The acquisition is expected to enrich the company's product portfolio and expand its customer base, leveraging Algo's strong market position in mainland China with 16 major clients, including state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and city commercial banks [2] - The company plans to adopt Algo's software licensing + maintenance service model, which is expected to enhance profitability and accelerate its international expansion strategy in the Asia-Pacific region [2] Financial Forecasts - Algo generated $3.135 million in revenue in China in 2023 [3] - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 at RMB 1.951 billion, RMB 2.101 billion, and RMB 2.358 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 0.80%, 7.68%, and 12.23%, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 132 million, RMB 176 million, and RMB 208 million for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of 12.72%, 33.65%, and 18.35%, respectively [3] - EPS is expected to be RMB 0.29, RMB 0.38, and RMB 0.45 for 2024-2026 [3] Business Analysis - Algo's market risk software is a leading risk management system in the financial market, known for its high efficiency, accuracy, and broad model coverage, supporting over 100 financial market trading products [2] - The localized version of Algo is expected to significantly enhance the company's mid-platform capabilities in financial market business systems [2] - The acquisition is anticipated to help the company expand its customer base beyond banks to include securities, insurance, funds, and asset management industries [2] Financial Metrics - The company's revenue in 2023 was RMB 1.936 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 2.01% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was RMB 117 million, a year-on-year increase of 92.17% [7] - ROE (attributable to parent company) for 2023 was 4.50%, with a projected increase to 7.45% by 2026 [7] - P/E ratio for 2023 was 47.40, expected to decrease to 37.67 by 2026 [7]