huahaipharm(600521) 华福证券·2024-12-20 00:13Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Huahai Pharmaceutical, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next 6 to 12 months [125][134]. Core Views - The report highlights that the raw material pharmaceutical industry is at the bottom of its cycle and is expected to see long-term growth opportunities due to multiple catalysts [1]. - Huahai Pharmaceutical is recognized as a global leader in cardiovascular and psychiatric raw materials, with a diversified product structure that is expected to drive further growth in its raw material business [2][66]. - The company is leveraging domestic procurement policies to expand its market presence and has made significant advancements in its overseas formulation business, particularly following the lifting of FDA restrictions [82][101]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Huahai Pharmaceutical is a leading integrated pharmaceutical manufacturer with a global presence, focusing on both raw materials and formulations [18]. - The company has established stable partnerships with over a thousand pharmaceutical companies worldwide, providing products to more than 100 countries and regions [75]. 2. Raw Material Business - The company has a strong portfolio in cardiovascular and psychiatric raw materials, with 66 registered raw material drug numbers in China, 84 DMF registrations in the US, and 57 CEP certificates in Europe [2][66]. - In 2023, the raw material revenue was 3.16 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.9%, but the gross margin improved to 47.8% [66]. - The raw material production is expected to recover, with a projected revenue growth of 20.4% in 2024 [118]. 3. Formulation Business - The formulation business has seen steady growth, with 2023 revenues reaching 4.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% and a gross margin of 68.4% [82]. - The company has obtained nearly 100 ANDA approvals in the US, enhancing its product lineup and market share [102]. - The domestic market expansion is supported by successful participation in national procurement programs, with 36 formulation products selected for rapid volume growth [90]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.31 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 58% [2]. - The report anticipates a stable gross margin for both raw materials and formulations, with the overall revenue expected to grow significantly in the coming years [118]. - The valuation is based on comparable companies, with an average PE ratio projected at 20X for 2024, reflecting the company's leading position in the industry [125].