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速腾聚创：MX产品拓展下沉市场空间，机器人行业快速发展有望开启第二增长曲线
02498ROBOSENSE(02498) 华兴证券·2024-12-20 01:07

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for RoboSense (2498 HK) with a target price of HK38.18[2][7][9]CoreViews−RoboSense′sMXproductisexpectedtoacceleratethepenetrationofADASLiDARinthemid−to−low−endmarket,becomingamajorgrowthdriverin2025[6][7]−Theroboticsbusinessisanticipatedtobecomeasecondgrowthcurve,withprojectedLiDARshipmentsreaching100,000unitsin2025[6][8]−Thecompany′sLiDARshipmentsareexpectedtogrowsignificantly,with2024Eshipmentsforecastedat589,900units,a127.238.18 [2][7][9] Core Views - RoboSense's MX product is expected to accelerate the penetration of ADAS LiDAR in the mid-to-low-end market, becoming a major growth driver in 2025 [6][7] - The robotics business is anticipated to become a second growth curve, with projected LiDAR shipments reaching 100,000 units in 2025 [6][8] - The company's LiDAR shipments are expected to grow significantly, with 2024E shipments forecasted at 589,900 units, a 127.2% YoY increase [9] - The average selling price (ASP) of LiDAR is expected to decline to RMB 2,000 in 2025 and further to RMB 1,800 in 2026 due to the increasing proportion of MX products [9][18] Financial Performance - RoboSense's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,721 million in 2024E to RMB 2,880 million in 2026E [11][18] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 16.3% in 2024E to 28.0% in 2026E, driven by economies of scale and cost reductions from in-house chip development [18] - RoboSense is forecasted to achieve positive adjusted net income in 2026E, reaching RMB 96 million [11][18] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - RoboSense ranked first in LiDAR installations in 2024, with 401,940 units installed, capturing a significant market share [7] - The company has secured partnerships with over 2,600 robotics companies, positioning itself well in the robotics sector [8] - RoboSense's ADAS LiDAR is widely adopted by major automakers, including XPeng, AITO, Zeekr, and BYD (Yangwang) [7] Valuation - The report values RoboSense at 7x P/S for 2025E, resulting in a target price of HK38.18 [9][22] - Compared to peers, RoboSense is expected to command a higher valuation due to its leading market position, improving gross margins, and potential growth in the robotics industry [22][24] Industry Outlook - The LiDAR penetration rate in the Chinese new energy vehicle market reached 12.0% in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [7] - The robotics industry is in its early stages of rapid development, with increasing demand for sensors like LiDAR expected to drive future growth [8]