WLY(000858) 民生证券·2024-12-20 06:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Wuliangye (000858 SZ) [4][5] Core Views - Wuliangye is expected to achieve revenue of 89 7/94 5/99 1 billion yuan in 2024-2026 with YoY growth of 7 7%/5 4%/4 8% respectively Net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted at 32 7/34 4/36 1 billion yuan with YoY growth of 8 3%/5 2%/4 9% [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing five key areas product strength brand strength channel strength market responsiveness and execution capability [4] - Wuliangye aims to optimize dealer profitability through comprehensive measures including cost control market governance and channel optimization [4] Financial Forecasts Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from 83 272 million yuan in 2023A to 99 063 million yuan in 2026E with a CAGR of 6 0% [8][13] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to increase from 30 211 million yuan in 2023A to 36 108 million yuan in 2026E [13] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 7 78 yuan in 2023A to 9 30 yuan in 2026E [13] Balance Sheet - Total assets are expected to grow from 165 433 million yuan in 2023A to 220 828 million yuan in 2026E [8] - Shareholders' equity is projected to increase from 132 349 million yuan in 2023A to 181 668 million yuan in 2026E [8] - The debt-to-asset ratio is forecasted to decline from 20 0% in 2023A to 17 73% in 2026E [8] Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is expected to remain strong ranging from 34 935 million yuan in 2024E to 39 005 million yuan in 2026E [8] - Capital expenditures are projected to decrease from 2 955 million yuan in 2023A to 1 024 million yuan in 2026E [8] Valuation Metrics - PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 18x in 2023A to 15x in 2026E [4][13] - PB ratio is expected to decrease from 4 3x in 2023A to 3 2x in 2026E [8][13] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 10 70x in 2023A to 8 72x in 2026E [22] Operational Highlights - Wuliangye's main brand continues to optimize its 1+3 product system with stable pricing for core products [10] - The company has expanded its terminal network by 18 2% YoY adding 16 000 new outlets in 2024 [10] - Wuliangye has strengthened its presence in the banquet market with 30 000 events serving over 6 million people in 2024 [10] - The company has made significant progress in international markets reaching 7 7 billion people across five continents [10]