ANGEL YEAST(600298) 中原证券·2024-12-20 10:44Company Overview - Closing price: 36.29 yuan [1] - Gross margin: 23.28% [2] - Total shares outstanding: 868.6447 million, with 854.4959 million in circulation [3] - Market capitalization: 31.01 billion yuan [20] - Price-to-book ratio: 3.02x [33] - Earnings per share (EPS): 1.52 yuan (2022A), 1.46 yuan (2023A), 1.57 yuan (2024E), 1.80 yuan (2025E), 2.05 yuan (2026E) [22][37] - Net asset value per share: 12.01 yuan [34] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 47.72% [35] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: 3.738 billion yuan, up 27.17% YoY, driving full-year growth [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024: 10.912 billion yuan, up 13.05% YoY [3] - Overseas sales grew 17.89%, while domestic sales increased only 0.89% [3] - Sales expenses rose 14.32% YoY, in line with overseas revenue growth [11] - Cost pressures remain high, with a 15.13% increase in costs, outpacing revenue growth [28] - Gross margin declined by 1.39 percentage points to 23.28% [28] Investment Rating and Valuation - Investment rating: Maintained as "Overweight" [36] - Predicted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 1.57 yuan, 1.80 yuan, and 2.05 yuan, respectively [37] - P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 23.14x, 20.15x, and 17.70x, respectively [37] - Revenue growth forecast: 10.45% (2024E), 12.86% (2025E), 12.23% (2026E) [22] - Net profit growth forecast: 7.24% (2024E), 14.87% (2025E), 13.81% (2026E) [22] Industry and Market Context - The company operates in the food and beverage sector [13][23][39] - Overseas markets are driving growth, with significant expansion efforts [3][11] - Domestic market recovery remains slow, with minimal growth [3] - Raw material costs, particularly for sugar molasses, are expected to decline, potentially easing cost pressures in future quarters [28] Financial Projections - Revenue projections: 15.000 billion yuan (2024E), 16.929 billion yuan (2025E), 18.999 billion yuan (2026E) [22] - Net profit projections: 1.362 billion yuan (2024E), 1.565 billion yuan (2025E), 1.781 billion yuan (2026E) [22] - Operating cash flow: 1.815 billion yuan (2024E), 1.894 billion yuan (2025E), 2.350 billion yuan (2026E) [31] - Capital expenditures: -1.464 billion yuan (2024E), -1.161 billion yuan (2025E), -1.245 billion yuan (2026E) [31]