Micron Technology-美光科技：NAND疲弱已反映至股价；HBM或推高2HFY25收入

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Micron Technology (MU US) with a target price of $118 00, down from the previous target of$ 148 00 [2][23][25] Core Views - The report highlights potential upside in 2HFY25 driven by HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) volume growth and recovery in traditional DRAM business, which could lead to revenue outperformance [8][25] - Despite near-term challenges in NAND and DRAM markets, the report expects HBM and data center revenue growth to offset some of the pressures, particularly with 12Hi HBM3E contributing to improved product mix [12][13][25] - The report notes that the current stock price already reflects the weaker-than-expected 2QFY25 revenue and gross margin guidance, particularly due to NAND weakness [8][12][22] Financial Adjustments - The report revises FY2025-2027 EPS estimates downward to $7 05,$ 11 27, and $10 03, respectively, reflecting a 16%, 8%, and 8% reduction from previous estimates [5][14][25] - Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are also adjusted downward by 8%, 2%, and 5%, respectively, due to weaker NAND demand and pricing pressures [11][25] - Gross margin is expected to face pressure from NAND price declines, but HBM revenue growth is seen as a mitigating factor [13][19] Market and Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Neutral," with expectations of relative performance within a -10% to 10% range compared to the broader market [2][4] - Micron's HBM business is expected to gain traction, with the company already shipping to a second HBM customer and preparing to ship to a third in 1Q25 [12][25] - The report anticipates a recovery in DRAM pricing and volume in 2HFY25, driven by inventory restocking in PC and mobile markets, as well as data center demand [11][12][25] Valuation and Target Price - The report uses a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a 10x P/E multiple to the DRAM business and a 5x P/E multiple to the NAND business, resulting in a total equity valuation of$ 128 7 billion and a target price of $118 [25][43] - The target price implies a 35% upside from the current stock price of$ 87 09 [16][25]