CBC(600132) 中原证券·2024-12-24 01:18Investment Rating - The report downgrades the company's rating to "Cautious Overweight" [31] Core Views - The company's revenue declined in the traditionally peak season for beer consumption, with Q3 2024 revenue dropping by 7.11% YoY and 13.62% compared to the same period last year [29] - Sales of goods received cash declined for two consecutive quarters in Q2 and Q3 2024, with decreases of 1.28% and 4.51% respectively [8] - The company's net profit margin decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 20.41% in the first three quarters of 2024 due to rising sales, management, and financial expense ratios [9] - Despite declining revenue, the company's gross margin increased slightly to 49.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by a larger reduction in costs compared to revenue [30] Financial Performance - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 2.74 yuan, 2.85 yuan, and 2.94 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.29x, 22.46x, and 21.74x [31][34] - Revenue growth is expected to be -1.20% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 3.20% and 3.10% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [34] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 3.74% and 3.27% in 2025 and 2026 after a slight decline of 0.67% in 2024 [34] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49% from 2024 to 2026 [41] Market Data - The stock's 52-week high and low prices are 75.55 yuan and 51.39 yuan respectively [2] - The current P/B ratio stands at 14.48x [3] - The stock's closing price as of December 20, 2024 is 63.90 yuan [22] - The company's market capitalization is 30.926 billion yuan [24] Operational Metrics - The company's diluted ROE reached 62.36% as of September 30, 2024 [6] - Operating cash flow per share was 7.15 yuan as of September 30, 2024 [5] - The company's total and circulating shares are both 483.9712 million [7] - The asset-liability ratio was 66.84% as of the latest reporting period [27] Industry Context - The beer industry is facing challenges with reduced consumption in key scenarios such as dining, late-night snacks, and bars [8] - The company's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows underperformance in the food and beverage sector [10]