Marubi(603983) 国信证券·2024-12-24 08:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [34][35]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transformed its operations over the past three years, revitalizing its brand presence in the domestic beauty market. The main brand, Marubi, has leveraged its long-standing expertise in eye creams and collagen products to achieve significant growth, particularly through online channels and targeted marketing strategies aimed at younger consumers. The emerging makeup brand, "Lianhuo," is also gaining traction by addressing consumer needs in the base makeup segment [18][51]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 28.66 billion, 37.70 billion, and 47.69 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 28.7%, 31.5%, and 26.5% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.68 billion, 5.16 billion, and 6.75 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 41.7%, 40.5%, and 30.7% [12][16][18]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with the main brand Marubi projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 26.8%, 33.1%, and 27.3% for 2024-2026. The new brand Lianhuo is anticipated to grow at rates of 34.1%, 28.7%, and 25.3% during the same period [29][30]. - The gross margin is expected to improve, with forecasts of 73.9%, 75.3%, and 75.8% for 2024-2026, driven by the increasing contribution of high-margin products [16][18]. Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.92, 1.29, and 1.68 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [17][26]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 37 in 2024 to 20 in 2026, reflecting the anticipated growth in earnings [18][26]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established four industry funds since 2020, focusing on various segments such as beauty devices, maternal and infant care, and skincare brands. The latest fund emphasizes high-tech and research-intensive areas, laying a foundation for long-term growth [27][28]. - The successful transformation of the company’s online sales strategy has resulted in a significant increase in revenue, with online sales accounting for over 80% of total revenue in recent quarters [61].