浙江交科：股权激励草案落地，彰显稳健经营信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and operational stability [2][19] Core Views - The company has released a draft equity incentive plan, aiming to grant 77.97 million restricted shares, approximately 3% of the total shares, to no more than 720 individuals at a price of 2.48 yuan per share [5] - The equity incentive plan is expected to incur a total amortization cost of 119.25 million yuan, with annual impacts on net profit from 2025 to 2029 [1] - The company's new contract value for the first three quarters of 2024 was 46.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, but the total value of unfinished projects reached 143.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, indicating sufficient project backlog [6] - The company plans to expand its industrial chain around its core business, focusing on mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its position in the infrastructure sector [17] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 48.58 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.49%, increasing to 56.64 billion yuan by 2026E [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1.48 billion yuan in 2024E to 1.79 billion yuan in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [7] - EBITDA is forecasted to increase from 2.76 billion yuan in 2024E to 3.27 billion yuan in 2026E [7] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 7.17 in 2024E to 5.93 in 2026E, indicating improving valuation metrics [7] Operational Highlights - The company's gross margin improved slightly in Q3 2024, supported by strong regional infrastructure investment, particularly in Zhejiang Province [6] - The company's equity incentive plan sets performance targets for 2025-2027, including a minimum non-GAAP net profit growth rate of 17%, 28%, and 40% respectively, and a return on equity (ROE) of at least 8.8%, 9%, and 9.1% [5] - The company's asset-liability ratio is expected to remain below 80% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a focus on maintaining financial stability [5] Industry and Regional Insights - Infrastructure investment in Zhejiang Province is expected to remain robust, with fixed asset investment growing by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, and infrastructure investment accelerating by 15.8% in the second half of the year [6] - The company's major shareholder, Zhejiang Communications Investment Group, is targeting an average annual growth rate of over 31% in transportation investment for 2024 and 2025 to meet the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [6]