山西汾酒：2024年中期分红出台，四轮驱动稳健行远

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809 SH) with a target price of 189 52 RMB as of December 24 2024 [11] - The current PE ratio is 19x for 2024 17x for 2025 and 15x for 2026 [2] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a leading light-flavor Baijiu company with strong brand heritage organizational efficiency and a well-structured product portfolio enabling it to navigate industry cycles effectively [2] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the future with sufficient growth tools and strong market regulation capabilities although growth may slow down it will not stall [2] - The company has set a tone of "steady development" for 2025 emphasizing stability over rapid expansion [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 36 664 million RMB in 2024 to 44 723 million RMB in 2026 with a CAGR of 10 9% [13] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 12 285 million RMB in 2024 to 15 414 million RMB in 2026 [13] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 10 07 RMB in 2024 to 12 63 RMB in 2026 [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to focus on four major product lines aiming to develop four 10-billion RMB products within 2-3 years including the Bolfen series Qinghua 20 series Laobaifen series and Qinghua 30 series [23] - In 2025 the company will prioritize stability with key growth drivers being the Laobaifen series Qinghua 20 and Qinghua 30+ products [23] Market Performance - As of October 2024 the company had already achieved its full-year sales target from the previous year with the number of distributors generating over 100 million RMB in sales increasing from 41 to 51 [3] - The company is actively pursuing national market expansion youth-oriented strategies and international development [3] Dividend Policy - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 3 billion RMB for 2024 equivalent to 2 46 RMB per share representing approximately 26% of the first three quarters' net profit [20] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase potentially reaching over 60% in the future [20] Financial Ratios - The ROE is projected to decline from 33 1% in 2024 to 26 0% in 2026 reflecting a gradual normalization of profitability [13] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 18 8x in 2024 to 15 0x in 2026 indicating improving valuation metrics [13]