Hangcha (603298) 东吴证券·2024-12-25 09:36Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, projecting a net profit of 2.05 billion, 2.30 billion, and 2.54 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [3][4]. Core Views - The logistics industry's intelligent transformation is a major trend, and the report is optimistic about domestic leaders with first-mover advantages [2]. - The company plans to establish a smart logistics company in the United States, enhancing its competitive edge in the North American market [4]. - Short-term industry conditions are challenging, with domestic demand primarily driven by replacement needs and weak overseas demand, particularly in the U.S. market [3]. - Long-term prospects remain positive due to the potential for increased lithium battery adoption in both domestic and international markets, with current penetration rates at 19% in China and 13% overseas [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 16.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 20.30 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.97% [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.72 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.54 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.16% [3][5]. - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.31 CNY in 2023 to 1.94 CNY in 2026 [3][5]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 13.98 in 2023 to 9.48 in 2026, indicating an attractive valuation [3][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a benchmark enterprise in the smart warehousing and logistics sector, having established early partnerships with leading overseas firms [4]. - The establishment of the U.S. smart logistics company is expected to further enhance the company's capabilities and market presence in North America [4]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) in the logistics sector, which are expected to see rising penetration rates due to labor cost pressures and the need for efficiency [5].