Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [48][58]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the mid-to-high-end mattress market, with a strong brand presence and a comprehensive sales network [42][45]. - The mattress industry in China has significant room for growth in penetration rates, replacement frequency, and market concentration, which are expected to drive demand [27][36]. - The company has implemented operational reforms that have begun to show results, leading to stable profitability despite challenges in the market [49][47]. Financial Performance Summary - From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue and net profit grew at compound annual growth rates of 11.8% and 30%, respectively. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 5.58 billion yuan, a 4% decline year-on-year, while net profit reached 800 million yuan, a 13.2% increase [4]. - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to generate revenues of 5.74 billion yuan, 6.24 billion yuan, and 6.79 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.9%, 8.7%, and 8.9%, respectively. Net profits are expected to be 800 million yuan, 880 million yuan, and 960 million yuan, with growth rates of 0.2%, 9.6%, and 9.3% [11][58]. Market Dynamics - The mattress replacement cycle in China is longer than in developed countries, with about 50% of respondents using mattresses for over five years, compared to 70% in the U.S. This indicates potential for increased replacement demand as consumer awareness of health and sleep quality rises [27][45]. - The market concentration in China's mattress retail sector is low, with CR2 and CR5 at 12% and 18%, respectively, compared to 43% and 60% in the U.S. This suggests opportunities for leading brands to capture more market share [29][45]. Business Strategy - The company has diversified its product offerings and strengthened its e-commerce presence, with online sales accounting for 18.5% of revenue in 2023, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [49][58]. - The company is focusing on enhancing customer reach through package sales and increasing the rate of product bundling, which is expected to broaden its customer base [46][49].
慕思股份：赛道优品牌好，改革效能释放正当时