YIWU CCC(600415) 东吴证券·2024-12-26 02:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for growth in the cross-border import sector of the small commodity city, with a significant disparity between export and import volumes. In the first 11 months of 2024, exports from Yiwu reached 542.1 billion, while imports were only 71.9 billion, indicating ample room for growth in imports [2] - The company plans to implement a positive list management system for daily consumer goods imports, aiming to achieve a total import volume of 300 billion by 2030. The company has established a fully digital joint regulatory platform and streamlined customs processes, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency [2][3] - The report anticipates that the company will continue to grow by focusing on the small commodity industry chain, supported by various policy catalysts. The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards to 31.3 billion, 36.9 billion, and 51.3 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.8%, 18.1%, and 39.0% [3] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report discusses the comprehensive international trade reform plan for Yiwu, which includes measures to enhance market procurement trade methods and promote innovative development in import trade [1][4] - The company is positioned as a core hub for small commodity trade in Yiwu, with plans to expand its service offerings in logistics, payment, and data management, transitioning from a traditional rental model to a comprehensive service model [5][6] Financial Forecasts - The report provides financial projections, estimating total revenue to grow from 11,300 million in 2023 to 24,781 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.67% [4] - The net profit is expected to increase from 2,676 million in 2023 to 5,129 million by 2026, with a notable year-on-year growth of 38.97% in 2026 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to implement five key initiatives in response to the reform plan, including expanding the import scale of daily consumer goods and enhancing the digital capabilities of export enterprises [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing logistics channels and improving trade settlement efficiency to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness [5]