Jinko Power(601778) 中邮证券·2024-12-26 02:56Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its continuous improvement in business model and valuation compared to peers [25][63] Core Views - The company is transitioning from a traditional photovoltaic power operator to a comprehensive energy service provider, focusing on new power systems [32][35] - The global energy transition is accelerating, with the Paris Agreement's NDC 3.0 submission deadline set for February 2025, and countries like UAE, Brazil, and the US have already updated their NDCs [32][95] - China's energy transformation is entering a "demand-driven" era, with the power market reform expected to bring differentiation in photovoltaic power station operations [32][61] - The company's business model is improving, with a focus on light-asset strategies, overseas expansion, and comprehensive energy services [32][93] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to be 4.73/5.51/7.10 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 577/710/907 million yuan, representing a CAGR of 33.2% [14][40] - The EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.16/0.20/0.25 yuan, with PE multiples of 18/15/11 times and a PB of 0.7 for 2024 [63] Business Model and Strategy - The company is adopting a light-asset strategy, focusing on cooperative development models and overseas expansion, particularly in the Middle East and Europe [12][32] - It is actively developing comprehensive energy services, including virtual power plants and power trading, with subsidiaries like Jinko Huineng playing a key role [32][105] - The company has successfully implemented projects in Saudi Arabia and Spain, with a total of 4.6GW of operational and under-construction projects in GCC countries [9] Industry and Market Trends - The global energy transition is expected to accelerate, with the Paris Agreement's NDC 3.0 submission deadline approaching, and countries like UAE, Brazil, and the US have already updated their NDCs [32][95] - China's power market reform is accelerating, with the establishment of a unified power market by 2025 and the full participation of new energy in the market by 2029 [62] - The power spot market is rapidly developing, with regions like Shanxi, Guangdong, Shandong, and Gansu already transitioning to formal operations [99] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company have shown strong growth, with a CAGR of 27.8% and 42.7% respectively from 2015 to 2023 [52] - However, the company's performance has been under pressure recently, with a 43.6% decline in net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to lower power station transfer income and increased losses from natural disasters [52] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's PE multiples for 2024-2026 are 18/15/11 times, with a PB of 0.7 for 2024, which is lower than peers like Solar Power, Three Gorges Energy, and Xinneng Technology [63] - The company's valuation is considered attractive given its continuous improvement in business model and growth prospects [63]