Jointown(600998) 广发证券·2024-12-26 07:28Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 6.48 CNY per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2024 [26][44][46]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the outpatient pharmaceutical distribution sector, benefiting from the trend of prescription outflow and the approval of public REITs, which will enhance its asset management and operational efficiency [26][44][60]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.49% in revenue and 16.25% in net profit over the past decade, indicating strong historical performance [26][27]. - The report highlights the company's comprehensive business layout across the pharmaceutical supply chain, including digital distribution, new retail, and pharmaceutical manufacturing, which supports its growth strategy [20][26][40]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to reach 1547.30 billion CNY, 1644.21 billion CNY, and 1748.99 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 3.06%, 6.26%, and 6.37% [5][28]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.43 CNY, 0.48 CNY, and 0.52 CNY, corresponding to PE ratios of 12.08x, 10.98x, and 10.09x [5][28]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 7.8% to 8.1% over the forecast period, reflecting consistent operational efficiency [28][37]. Business Segment Analysis - The digital pharmaceutical distribution and supply chain business is expected to see modest growth, with revenue growth rates projected at 0.5% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 and 2026 [20][22]. - The general agency brand promotion business is anticipated to grow significantly, with projected revenue growth rates of 17.3%, 27.7%, and 24.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [20][21]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing and OEM business is also expected to grow, with revenue growth rates of 17%, 18.4%, and 15.2% over the same period [20][21]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a robust competitive advantage in the outpatient market, supported by its comprehensive supply chain and digital logistics capabilities [20][27]. - The approval of public REITs is expected to facilitate the company's transition to a light-asset model, enhancing its operational flexibility and financial performance [44][60].