GW COMPOS(300699) 广发证券·2024-12-26 07:28Investment Rating - Sell: Expected to underperform the market by more than 5% over the next 12 months [1] - Hold: Expected to perform within a range of -5% to +5% relative to the market over the next 12 months [11] - Buy: Expected to outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [23] - Overweight: Expected to outperform the market by 5%-15% over the next 12 months [23] Core Views - The company's subsidiary, Weihai Expansion, signed a significant daily operation contract with Customer A, totaling 3.664 billion yuan, which accounts for 145.51% of the company's audited revenue for the most recent fiscal year [4] - The contract involves multiple products and service periods, with execution dates spanning from July 1, 2024, to December 31, 2027 [4] - The contract is expected to significantly boost the company's revenue and profits, with the subsidiary's profitability contribution increasing [4] - The company's T300 demand is expected to continue, and the next-generation material T800 is positioned to support equipment upgrades, with potential growth in high-end composite applications in aviation, civil aircraft, rockets, missiles, and satellites [4] - The company's 2024-2026 earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.01, 1.55, and 1.91 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 40.52 yuan based on a 28X P/E ratio for 2025 [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022, 2023, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 2.511 billion, 2.518 billion, 2.644 billion, 3.792 billion, and 4.733 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -3.7%, 0.3%, 5.0%, 43.4%, and 24.8% [6] - EBITDA for the same periods is expected to be 1.120 billion, 1.171 billion, 1.155 billion, 1.672 billion, and 2.188 billion yuan [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 934 million, 873 million, 842 million, 1.203 billion, and 1.566 billion yuan, with growth rates of 23.2%, -6.5%, -3.6%, 42.9%, and 30.2% [6] - EPS for 2022, 2023, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 1.13, 1.05, 1.01, 1.45, and 1.88 yuan, respectively [6] - The company's P/E ratio for 2022, 2023, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is 64.14, 25.37, 33.35, 23.34, and 17.92, respectively [6] Valuation and Target Price - The company's reasonable value is estimated at 40.52 yuan per share, based on a 28X P/E ratio for 2025 [4] - The current price is 33.77 yuan, with a target price of 40.52 yuan, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [7] Industry and Market Performance - The company's performance is expected to benefit from the aerospace and satellite industries, with high-end composite applications driving growth [4] - The company's relative market performance shows a significant outperformance compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 52% increase over the observed period [9]