创源股份：基本面扎实，期待股东赋能

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a 6-month target price range of 17.25-20.7 RMB [5][6] Core Views - The company is a well-known player in the stationery and educational products industry, with a solid foundation in its main business and a growing second revenue curve driven by cross-border e-commerce [1][3] - The company's controlling shareholder, Ningbo Cultural Tourism Exhibition Group, provides strong resource support and industry synergy potential [2][13] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the booming "Guzi" (anime merchandise) market, which is expected to grow from 221.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 590 billion RMB by 2029 [4][12] Business Overview - The company operates in three main segments: stationery & education, sports & fitness, and home & lifestyle products [11] - The stationery segment, particularly fashion stationery, accounts for over 50% of 2023 revenue [11][20] - The sports & fitness segment, led by subsidiary RITFIT, has seen rapid growth with a 145% YoY increase in H1 2024 revenue [8][54] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.84 billion RMB in 2024E to 3.12 billion RMB in 2026E, with a CAGR of 30% [3][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 95.48 million RMB in 2024E to 165.51 million RMB in 2026E [15] - The company's gross margin has been improving, reaching 32.6% in 2023, driven by the high-margin sports & fitness segment [27][54] Growth Drivers - Cross-border e-commerce is a key growth driver, with overseas sales accounting for 97.4% of total revenue in 2023 [44] - The company is expanding its presence in the domestic market through IP collaborations, such as with Dunhuang Museum [63] - The sports & fitness segment, with its high gross margin of 48% in H1 2024, is expected to be a major contributor to future growth [54] Industry Opportunities - The "Guzi" market presents a significant opportunity, with the anime merchandise industry expected to grow at an 18% CAGR from 2023 to 2029 [12][89] - The company's strong IP resources and supply chain capabilities position it well to benefit from this growing market [12][120] Valuation - The company is valued at 25-30x PE for 2025E, based on comparable companies in the stationery and entertainment products industry [6][122] - The target price range of 17.25-20.7 RMB implies a potential upside from the current price of 17.15 RMB [5][6]