CATL(SZ:300750) Soochow Securities·2024-12-27 03:24Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [14][15] Core Views - The company is advancing its overseas production capacity, with overseas growth expected to take over domestic growth by 2026 [3] - The company plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to further its global strategy and enhance competitiveness [5] - The company is increasing its dividend payout ratio, with a planned distribution of 15% of the first three quarters' net profit, amounting to 5.4 billion yuan, reflecting a focus on shareholder returns [6] - The company's overseas expansion is progressing smoothly, with significant capacity in Europe (Germany 14GWh, Hungary 100GWh, Spain 50GWh) and partnerships in the US (Ford 20GWh) [3] - The company's valuation is low, with a 2024 EV/EBITDA of 14x, compared to LG Energy Solution's 26x, making it a rare global player in the new energy sector [14] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 400.917 billion yuan in 2023 to 549.370 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.1% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 44.121 billion yuan in 2023 to 80.084 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.1% [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 10.02 yuan in 2023 to 18.19 yuan in 2026 [2] - P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 26.07x in 2023 to 14.36x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [2] Overseas Expansion and Market Share - The company's market share in Europe is expected to increase to 40-50% with new capacity in Germany, Hungary, and Spain [3] - The US market is expected to see further breakthroughs post the IRA bill, with partnerships with Tesla and General Motors progressing [3] - The company's overseas capacity is expected to drive growth, with significant investments in Hungary (100GWh) and Spain (50GWh) [14] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute 15% of its net profit from the first three quarters, amounting to 5.4 billion yuan, with a cash dividend of 12.3 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting a dividend yield of 0.45% [6] Profitability and Growth - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 28% from 2024 to 2026 [19] - Net profit margin is projected to increase from 11.01% in 2023 to 14.58% in 2026 [19] - The company's ROE is expected to remain strong, ranging from 20.18% to 20.84% from 2024 to 2026 [10] Industry Outlook - The global energy storage market is expected to grow by 50% in 2025, driving demand for the company's products [25] - The company's battery shipments are expected to increase from 490GWh in 2024 to 650GWh+ in 2025, representing a 33% year-on-year growth [25] - The company's profitability is expected to remain stable, with a profit of 0.1 yuan/wh, supported by economies of scale and product structure optimization [25]