NHD(002946)2024-12-29 01:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its strategic direction through 2025, focusing on its core business of low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, which have significant growth potential compared to ambient products [1]. - The company aims to enhance its value and net profit margin through structural optimization, which has already contributed to a 2.4 percentage point increase in gross margin year-on-year as of Q3 2024 [1]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 564 million, 671 million, and 768 million yuan, respectively, reflecting an increase of 2.47%, 1.25%, and 3.44% from previous estimates [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company’s low-temperature business is performing well, with strong growth expected in the eastern region, while the western region's ambient business is anticipated to recover due to improved end-demand and pricing competition [1]. - The company has a robust management capability in mergers and acquisitions, having developed a multi-dimensional management approach for acquired brands and supply chains [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 10,006 million yuan in 2022 to 12,305 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.46% [5]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 362 million yuan in 2022 to 768 million yuan in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 14.34% in 2026 [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 0.65, 0.78, and 0.89 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22X, 19X, and 16X [1][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.14% by 2026, indicating strong profitability [10].