GONGNIU(603195) 华安证券·2024-12-29 01:59Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a first-time coverage [16] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of civil electrical products, with a strong presence in the electrical connection, smart electrical lighting, and new energy sectors [16] - The company has expanded its business from converters and wall switches to a comprehensive ecosystem, including digital accessories, LED lighting, and new energy charging piles [16] - The company's revenue grew from 5.366 billion yuan in 2016 to 15.695 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 14.36%, and net profit attributable to the parent company grew from 1.407 billion yuan to 3.870 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.48% [16] - The company's new energy business, including charging piles and energy storage, is expected to drive medium- to long-term growth [16] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 170.77 billion yuan, 186.74 billion yuan, and 203.25 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%, 9.4%, and 8.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 4.306 billion yuan, 4.774 billion yuan, and 5.276 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 10.9%, and 10.5% [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 43.2%-43.5% from 2024E to 2026E [3] - ROE is projected to increase from 27.6% in 2024E to 28.5% in 2026E [3] Business Segments Electrical Connection - The electrical connection segment, including converters and digital accessories, is the company's core business, contributing 47.14% of total revenue in 2023 [16] - Revenue from the electrical connection segment grew from 5.124 billion yuan in 2018 to 7.387 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.59% [16] - The company has introduced innovative products such as track sockets and Z-generation series sockets, which have been well-received by users [16] Smart Electrical Lighting - The smart electrical lighting segment, including wall switches, LED lighting, and smart lighting, contributed 50.43% of total revenue in 2023 [16] - The company has expanded its LED lighting product line from bulbs to include light strips, ceiling lights, and other lighting products, with rapid growth in sales [16] - The company is focusing on the development of smart lighting solutions, including the "Muguang" brand, which offers smart lighting systems for various home scenarios [16] New Energy - The new energy segment, including charging piles and energy storage, achieved revenue of 380 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 148.37% [16] - The company has launched a series of charging guns and charging piles for both B2B and B2C markets, catering to different charging scenarios [16] - In the energy storage sector, the company has introduced products for both household and industrial use, such as the 125KW and 230KWh liquid-cooled industrial energy storage cabinets [16] Market and Industry Trends - The global smart socket market is expected to grow from 2.384 billion USD in 2022 to 4.7588 billion USD by 2036, with a CAGR of 14.2% [61] - The Chinese LED lighting market is projected to grow from 701.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 716.9 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increasing penetration rates [61] - The global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with new installations reaching 147GW to 256GW by 2030 in China, driven by the "carbon neutrality" goal [90] Management and Governance - The company has a highly professional management team, led by Chairman Ruan Liping, who has extensive experience in the civil electrical industry [25] - The company has implemented a robust equity incentive plan, with 888 employees covered in the 2024 restricted stock incentive plan [25] - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with R&D expenses increasing from 180 million yuan in 2016 to 673 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 4.29% of revenue [34]